The Baltic Sea Parliamentary Conference (BSPC) 2025-08-25Fish and fisheries in the Baltic SeaSara Söderström, researcher, Baltic Sea Centrehttps://www.su.se/polopoly_fs/1.743081.1718225194!/menu/standard/file/key_measures_240612.pdfWho am I?•PhD in environmental science with a focus on ecosystem-based management in the Baltic Sea marine environment •Focus area fisheries management •Researcher at the Baltic Sea Centre, Stockholm University. •Baltic Sea Centre connects research with policy and communicationFish in the Baltic Sea•Few commercial species: ❖Herring ❖Sprat ❖Cod ❖Plaice ❖Salmon •Governed by the Common Fisheries Policy (CFP) •Annual decision-making process where a total allowable catch (TAC) is decided by the Council of ministers •Clear negative trends for almost all fish stocksStock development since 2017 Stock YearWestern codEastern codWestern herringCentral herringBothnian herring Riga herring Sprat2017 ≤3 541≤ 26 071≤ 34 618267 745≤ 95 56624 919291 7152025000157 99662 68430 913224 616•Green = Productive (EU targets met) •Yellow = Risk zone (EU targets not met) •Red = Crisis The numbers: ICES headline advice on fishing opportunities (Fupper/MAP) in tonnes of fishResolution Item 36 (Research- and Science-Based Sustainable Fishing Quotas)The role of Science in fishing quotas, the TAC cycle: EU Commission → ICES → EU Commission again → Member states → Council of ministers = TACs for upcoming yearsUncertainties and solutions•Scientific uncertainty ❖Models uncertain ❖Warnings (i.e. uncertain recruitments, misreporting) •Decision-making risks ❖Setting a TAC higher than scientific advice ❖Not reading the fine prints•Solutions ❖Lower TACs – precautionary principle & address scientific uncertainties and warnings ❖Address environmental issues Example successful recovery: North sea herring – fishing stop 5 years (then restricted TAC) Islandic herring – fishing stop 30 yearsIn sum•Many Baltic Sea fish stocks show negative rends, or have collapsed •Scientific advice and forecasts have uncertainties – need for precaution •Declined fish stocks can recover if proper means are introduced - don’t start too late!Thank you for your attention!Contactsu.se/ostersjocentrum/english Contact: Sara Söderström E-mail: sara.soderstrom@su.se Phone: +46 (0)8 30 15 18