Velliste Presentation at 19th BSPC

The 19th Baltic Sea Parliamentary Conference31 August 2010, Mariehamn“The Baltic Sea Region as an Area of Peace and Security”STATEMENT by Mr. Trivimi Velliste, Vice President of the Baltic AssemblyMr Chairman,First of all I would like to extend to you and the Aland Lagtinget my warmest thanks for your kind hospitality in this small paradise on earth. The unforgettable dinner on the sailing ship Pommern last night reminded me of the fact that my trip to the picturesque Aland Islands started three days ago from the Seaport of Tallinn. This, in its turn, reminded me of the old days a quarter of a century ago when, from time to time, I had a privilege to welcome some visitors, some friends from Finland at that very port. For me the Port of Tallinn was a closed gate – I could come to it but I could not pass through that gate myself. However, I was able to welcome those who arrived. And I could say good-bye when they left. And what was most striking, the front wall of the main building of the port was decorated with a huge slogan in huge letters saying – THE BALTIC SEA – A SEA OF PEACE. Indeed, it was a sea of peace, albeit cold peace!So, ladies and gentlemen, what can we say about the Baltic Sea region today? In the first place, it is not a homogeneous, united or integrated area. It can be characterized by differences between the countries in size, development and welfare, even proximity to the sea itself. The nations around the Baltic Sea have different cultures, different languages and life styles. They have also different perception of their history. In spite of all this, the countries in the Baltic Sea region are united by important political objectives. They have a common political agenda and they enjoy dynamic economic cooperation. The regional cooperation has indeed provided significant security and stability in this part of the world.Ladies and gentlemen,The Baltic Sea region is quite a typical European region where a great variety of nations and policies meet in a relatively small space. Therefore, it is not surprising that the history of the Baltic Sea region has seen a number of conflicts. Russia and Germany, the region’s two superpowers, have always pushed their agendas. In certain periods there have been other important players, e.g. Sweden in the 17th century when the Baltic Sea was an internal Swedish lake.On the other hand, however, we must admit that the Baltic Sea region is quite specific and unique even in the European context. In most turbulent times it has managed to remain a certain oasis of stability, where economy, trade and culture flourished. Today, when Europe is uniting, it is appropriate to recall a unique case of regional cooperation, the Hanseatic League.The collapse of both the Russian Empire and the German Empire at the end of World War One provided conditions for birth or rebirth of five Baltic States – Finland, Estonia, Latvia, Lithuania and Poland. This, in turn, afforded opportunities for their stable and successful development - trading and maintaining ties with the rest of the world, together with Sweden and Denmark as old-timers of the region, up until World War Two. These five countries formed a sub-region of Europe, a certain model of stability.The period between the two world wars in this part of the world can be characterized as fairly stable, if leaving aside the conflict between Poland and Lithuania. (It may be mentioned as a side remark that for a brief period of time in the early 1920s there was considerable tension also between Estonia and Latvia over the border issue, notably the problem of dividing the town of Valga/Valka. The Latvian cabinet meeting even discussed possible military action against Estonia but fortunately enough dropped the idea.)So, by and large, everything was fine in the Baltic region until Germany and Russia started again to show their territorial ambition.The notorious Hitler–Stalin Pact (or: Molotov - Ribbentrop Pact) with its secret clauses about how to divide Eastern Europe changed everything. This pact was a licence to start another world war which ended six years afterwards with, as I said, cold peace. For Eastern Europe it also meant half a century of cold prison cells, cold labour camps and, in too many cases, also cold graves.It was only the exhaustion and collapse of the Soviet empire that once again changed everything. Against this background, it is remarkable that some of the modern political leaders believe that the collapse of the Soviet Union was the most deplorable, the most tragic event of the 20th century!Nevertheless, the Baltic Sea region remained a specific and a peculiar one even during the years of the Cold War when almost entire Europe and the world were divided between two camps. Although the security regime established in the region was a reflection of a constellation of the Cold War system, this constellation itself had certain special peculiarities in the Baltic Sea region. The main opponents in the Cold War were separated from one another by a multilayered buffer: in the southern part of the region - by the sea, and in the northern part - by the neutrality of Finland and Sweden. Therefore, one may say that the reality of the Cold War had divided the Baltic Sea region into three rather than two parts, i.e. the western part - NATO (Denmark and Germany), the eastern communist part (USSR, Poland and East Germany), and the northern neutral part (Sweden and Finland).After the Cold War a unique mixture of stability and dynamism could be observed in the security policy of the Baltic Sea countries. A dynamic process of reorganization of the whole region and its security system started. The disintegration of the USSR brought about the de facto restoration of the three independent Baltic nations and the end of the alien military occupation. Legally speaking – de jure – the Baltic States never ceased to exist – their embassies were kept alive in major democratic capitals, e. g. Washington, D.C. or London. Therefore, it is a mistake to refer to Estonia, Latvia and Lithuania as newly-born democracies or breakaway republics of the former Soviet Union. The three Baltic States were never a constituent part of the Soviet Union. They were illegally occupied as a result of the Second World War – just as Denmark or Norway or Czechoslovakia for that matter were occupied during the war.The fall of the Berlin Wall and the collapse of the Soviet Union brought about substantial change in Sweden’s and Finland’s neutrality. Alongside with new developments in the foreign policy of the countries concerned there was also an unprecedented activity of international institutions in the region.Dear Colleagues,Despite many fundamental changes in the Baltic Sea region and renewing dynamism of the security system, it is universally recognised that the region was and remains one of the most stable places in Europe. The change has had no impact upon stability and the existing conflict pressures have not transformed into open conflicts and use of force. This important observation may raise a question: what supports such stability and what are the mechanisms of its reproduction? And what are the prospects of its further development?The Baltic Sea region is hidden under different security umbrellas. Some of the countries prefer their security to rest under the NATO umbrella, others – under the EU umbrella. But the two umbrellas are not enough for the entire region. As long as these different arrangements work, it is not a problem.For the Nordic countries the Baltic Sea region has broadened including also high North. The Nordic defence cooperation is being stepped up. When talking about Germany and Poland, they do not consider themselves as classical Baltic Sea countries at all. They may participate in different arrangements but at the same time their focus is on Central Europe. The Baltic Sea security for Germany to a great extent means relationship with Russia. It is important to note that in Germany there is an ongoing discussion about abolishing or very substantially reducing the traditional compulsory military conscription. Critics of this initiative believe it may turn out to be very short-sighted. Germany is the biggest NATO member state in Europe and drastic reduction of its military capability may jeopardize German readiness to perform as an ally. One must never forget that a sound conscription system functions as one of the best deterrence instruments – thus offering long-lasting stability.When it comes to the Baltic States, Russia remains – for understandable reasons – one of the main concerns although new threats appear on the agenda. The Baltic States share their defence burden between domestic territorial defence capability and reliable participation in international missions. I regret to say, I learnt late last night that Estonia has lost another soldier in Afghanistan. This is the price my country has to pay.Estonia has preserved and further developed its conscript system which is highly popular among the public at large. In this respect Estonia resembles her northern neighbour Finland whereas Estonia ́s southern neighbours Latvia and Lithuania either have abandoned or are abandoning the military draft.Ladies and gentlemen,Security is one of those subjects in international politics which unchangingly, despite the time and events, has been in the centre of attention of researchers, politicians and society at large. The reason for that is prosaic – security is a concept which characterises the possibility of individuals, society and the state to survive and develop.Old threats, including nuclear weapons, persist in new forms (proliferation), while new threats have emerged. These new forms of insecurity, which include financial instability, environmental degradation, energy dependence, organized crime and terrorism, are more diverse, less visible and less predictable than ever before.Whenever one talks about increasing common funding for the EU Common Security and Defence Policy missions, encouraging member states to volunteer more troops or fill the vacuum in EU strategic planning, the main shortcoming in the defence field is the divergent strategic outlooks which exist among and between member states. There is no consensus about the overall purpose of increasing defence capabilities.Mr Chairman, ladies and gentlemen,We must admit security analysis requires answering three main questions:▪ What needs to be secured?▪ From whom?▪ How to secure?In contrast to the competing alliances of the past, Europe is now dominated by a process of political, economic and security integration centred on the EU and the NATO.In the European context we are faced with two issues: the lack of clear framework on security challenges and the lack of agreed conception where the European borders lie.However, one thing seems to be clear: NATO remains the most important guarantee and keystone of security in Europe not only in the military, but also in the economic and political dimensions.The security review should reaffirm the role of the USA as a European power. But it should also develop ways to make Russia feel more attracted to, and less marginalized by, the institutions and organizations of European security and thus encourage Russia to define itself as a real stakeholder in the European security architecture, rather than as a critic of the system. Europe’s security organizations should be encouraged to intensify consultations and coordination.Ladies and gentlemen,We live in a turbulent time and we know that the security environment has changed and will continue to change. Currently the unconventional threats are more and more emphasized. However the war in Georgia two years ago reminded us of hard security and the need to maintain a fine equilibrium between different threats. It is necessary to seek new methods and means in order to turn against asymmetric threats, including cyber attacks and organized crime. At the same time we should bear in mind the restriction of conventional arms, and reduction of nuclear arms.By way of concluding, Mr Chairman, please allow me to express my hope that the Tallinn seaport will never be a closed gate again. And if someone happens to write there THE BALTIC SEA – A SEA OF PEACE, people would simply smile and nod their heads approvingly.Thank you! Tack so mycke!