Presentation Meeting 4 Zurhold

Roman Zurhold, Project Director, Deutsche Energie-Agentur GmbH (dena)The German Energy Turnaround.12th of October 2012, BerlinEFFICIENCY - OUR FOCUS. 1Ownership structure of dena.denaFederal Republic50 % 26 %KfW Bankengruppeof Germany8 %Represented by the Federal Ministry of Economics Allianz SEand Technology (BMWi)in concert with:8 %Deutsche Bank AGThe Federal Ministry of Food, Agriculture andConsumer Protection (BMELV)The Federal Ministry for the Environment,8 %DZ BANK AGNature Conservation and Nuclear Safety (BMU)The Federal Ministry of Transport, Building andUrban Development (BMVBS)ManagementStephan Kohler – Chief ExecutiveAndreas JungEFFICIENCY - OUR FOCUS. 2dena’s Expertise and Activities.EFFICIENCY - OUR FOCUS. 3Political Framework.EFFICIENCY - OUR FOCUS. 4Energy and climate policy targets ofthe European Union.Central targets for 2020 within the scopeof the energy and climate policy strategy:Reduction of greenhouse gas emissions byat least 20 % compared to the level of1990 (30 %, if other industrialised countriescommit to comparable reductions).An increase in the use of renewable energysources to 20 % of the total energy production.Source: anghy / photocase.comAn energy consumption reduction of 20 % throughimprovements in energy efficiency.Member states have different subsidy instruments for expanding theuse of renewable energy sources.EFFICIENCY - OUR FOCUS. 5The energy policy targets of the Federal Government (I).The energy concept of theFederal Government formulates guidelines fora complete strategyuntil the year 2050,describing the path leading to the age ofrenewable energy sources.Central targets and measures:Source: BMWi 2011Reduction of greenhouse gas emissions by 40 % up to 2020 andby 80 % up to 2050 (compared to 1990).Reduction of primary energy consumption by 20 % up to 2020 andby 50 % up to 2050 (compare to 2008) and full utilisation of the efficiencypotentials in private homes and the public sector.Increase in energy productivity by an average of 2.1 %.Reduction of the heating requirements in buildings (compared to 2008) of 20% by 2020.Doubling of the energy renovation rate to 2 % to achieve an almost climate-neutral building inventory by 2050.EFFICIENCY - OUR FOCUS. 6The energy policy targets of the Federal Government (II).Reduction of power consumption by 10 % up to 2020and by 25 % up to 2050 (compared to 2008).Electric vehicles in Germany: 1 million by 2020,5 million by 2030.Increase the proportion of renewable energiesused in the gross final energy consumption of 18 %by 2020 and 60 % by 2050.Proportion of gross energy consumptionprovided by renewable energy power generation: at least 35 % by 2020and 80 % by 2050.Expansion of offshore wind utilisation to 10 GW by 2020 and 25 GW by 2030 andaccelerated expansion of the power grid infrastructure (North-Southtransmission lines).Legislation in 2011:Acceleration of the expansion of the power grid infrastructure.Legislation in 2011:Phasing out of the use of nuclear energy in Germany by 2022.EFFICIENCY - OUR FOCUS. 7General Challenge: Optimization of the entire Energy System.Demand Side Generation Energy Storage Grids•Raising energy •Expansion RES •Expansion energy •Energy efficientefficiency potentials •Expansion CHP storage transmission and•Energy services Contribution to a•High-efficient distribution gridsflexible energy system•Deployment of Conventional•Expansion of theSmart Metering generationgridsEnergy saving•Carbon Capturepotentials •Smart Gridsand StorageDemand SideManagementEnergy efficiency along the supply chainSystem optimization: consideration of the supply- and demand-sideUse of high-efficient technologies, innovative strategies and market-solutionsEFFICIENCY - OUR FOCUS. 8Energy efficiency – the key to a secure andsustainable supply of energy.EFFICIENCY - OUR FOCUS. 9Energy efficiency – the key to a secure and sustainablesupply of energy. Rational energy usage (demand side) Efficient conversion of primary energy into final energy (supply side)1. Climate protection: Achievement of the national and Europeanclimate protection targets for 2020 and the G8 targets for 2050.2. Cost reduction: To compensate for increasing energy costs.3. Security of supply: Reduction of energy imports,reduction of risks in energy supply.4. Tomorrow's market: improved competitivenessand innovation, opportunities for cutting-edge German technology.5. A high proportion of regenerative energy supply is only possiblewith full utilisation of the efficiency potentials.EFFICIENCY - OUR FOCUS. 10Germany as an example:Commercial energy saving potential by 2020*.Total: 340 TWh (= 13 % of the total energy consumption in 2008 of 2.522 TWh).Saving of 33.2 billion € in 2020(based on current energy prices, total energy costs for 2008: 263.93 billion €).* Values rounded, basis of comparison is 2008, dena calculation"Ambitious energy efficiency scenario“ as per the targets set in the 2010 Energy Concept.Sources: dena, EWI, GWS, Prognos, AG energy balances, BMW energy statistics,2010 Energy Concept of the Federal Government. EFFICIENCY - OUR FOCUS. 12Industrial and commercial energy efficiency:Increasing energy costs as a competetive factor.Energy costs of 32.6 billion € in the commercial sector in 2009Corresponds to a price increase of 58 % compared to 1998 (20.6 billion €):Energiepreisentwicklung Industrie350,00300,00%n 250,00ies 200,00i e Heizölrpe 150,00 Erdgasigr e 100,00 StromnE50,000,00Source: Initiative EnergieEffizienz/ denaEFFICIENCY - OUR FOCUS. 13Industrial and commercial energy-saving potentials.Average energy-saving potentials in cross-sector technologies, in percent:Source: Initiative EnergieEffizienz/ denaEFFICIENCY - OUR FOCUS. 14Energy efficiency in buildings – boundary conditions andpotentials.EFFICIENCY - OUR FOCUS. 16Germanys Final Energy Consumption.Commercial, public and residentiallightingbuildings account for some 40 % oftotal final energy demand (2010)heatinghot watercoolingcommunication technologieother production processprocess coldmechanical energy (incl.transport)(inkl. Verkehr)EFFICIENCY - OUR FOCUS. 17The energy strategy of the German Federal Government(for the building sector) – announced in autumn 2010.the existing building stock should be nearly climate neutral (by 2050)heating demand should be reduced by 20% by 2020the primary energy demand should be reduced by 80% by 2050increasing the share of renewable energies (heating demand) significantlydoubling the rate of refurbishments from currently 1% to 2% development of a refurbishment-road map (2020-2050)GEneerrgmiekaonnz eepnt ederrg Byu nsdtersaretgeiegruyn g120n80dif rad02f ua1 80 00Heat demandneb nu ee 60e-igg o]%mr ez[ 40 Primary energy demandr ä Wn e re bt 20änmeirzo0PrP 2008 2020 205 E0 FFICIENCY - OUR FOCUS. 18Political Instruments for Energy Efficiency in the BuildingSector.energy efficiencyLegalPromotional MarketRequirementsProgrammes Instrumentsdena ́s activities are closely linked to all three pillars and areas of activity.EFFICIENCY - OUR FOCUS. 20Real examples to follow – high energy savings guaranteed.Eichstetten Constance BerlinYear of construction 1750, protected 1959 1965historic placeLiving area: 260 m2 210 m2 226 m2Primary energyrequirements before: 202 kWh/m2a 251 kWh/m2a 217 kWh/m2aafter: 34 kWh/m2a 37 kWh/m2a 37 kWh/m2aPrimary energy 83 % 85 % 83 %savings:Energy cost savings 2,130 €/a 4,400 €/a 3,500 €/aEFFICIENCY - OUR FOCUS. 21The energy turnaround challenge - systemintegration of renewable energies.EFFICIENCY - OUR FOCUS. 22Electricity consumption in Germany byconsumer groups (2011).Industrial and commercial users have the largest share of total powerconsumption.EFFICIENCY - OUR FOCUS. 23Source: BDEW 2012.Structure of electricity generation in Germany in 2011.Total: 612.1 billion kWhEnergy source proportion in previous year 2010 in bracketsSource: AGEB Arbeitsgemeinschaft Energiebilanzen e.V. EFFICIENCY - OUR FOCUS. 24Gross electricity production in Germany by energysource for the 1st six months of 2012.Total gross electricity production in the 1st six months of 2012: 281.5 billionkWh*Proportion of renewable energies in 2011: 20,1 %*preliminary values, partially estimated, excluding industrial power generation for own-use.Sources: BDEW; AG energy balances, as of 19th of July 2012 EFFICIENCY - OUR FOCUS. 25Volatile feeding of renewable energies results in additionalpublic costs – wind energy as an example.EFFICIENCY - OUR FOCUS. 27Source: RWE Innogy GmbHInstalled power, secured power and load (Jan. 2011).Other renewable 51,1 50,8 Non-usable powerWater power 9,7 6,4 Revisions4,8 DropoutsOther 6,3 Secured power 5,1 Reserve for system DL93.1 GW 4,8 Remaining12,57,2Natural gas 22,1 power3,5 Load16,0Hard coal 29,525,480,621,2Lignite coal19,3Nuclear energy 20,3 16,9installed power secured power load160.2 GW90.1 GW* Power balance preview January 2011, 19:00h based on AtG 2010 as per System Adequacy Forecast 2011-2025 (entso-e) from Autumn 2010Sources: entso-e; BDEW 2012 (calculations based on the dena data on secured power from individual energy sources).EFFICIENCY - OUR FOCUS. 28Grid expansion of the high-voltage and distributiongrids.EFFICIENCY - OUR FOCUS. 31Power plant sites in Germany >100 MW and wind energy.Existing fossil RES-expansionor nuclear generation (mainly wind-capacities energy) leads to a regionalare located mainly shift of generation capacitiesclose to load-centers in towards northern Germany.western and southern This trend will be intensifiedGermany. by the planned Offshore-Wind-Energy expansion.Existing transmissiongrids meet their limitsparticularly on north-south and east-west-lines, when an efficientRES-integration isintended.EFFICIENCY - OUR FOCUS. 32Source: Umweltbundesamt (UBA) 2012Flexibility option/transit capacity:Expanding the electricity grid.German Network Development Plan2012:Optimizing the current grid:4,400 kmBuilding new lines:3,800 kmApproximated investment costs:20 billion € until 202227 billion € until 2032EFFICIENCY - OUR FOCUS. 33Source: NEP 2012, Scenario B.Grid expansion status: Overviewof EnLAG transmission lines.As of August 2012, 214 km (approx. 12 %)of the 1,834 km of the 24 EnLAG lines havebeen implemented.2 lines already implemented and inoperation, 4 with partial sectionscompleted.Predicted new construction in 2012: 35 km16 intended lines in various stages ofapprovalFeasibility studies currently underway for 2projects.ÜNB expects completion of the first half ofthe planned lines by 2016 (963 km of 1,834km).15 of the planned 24 projects delayed,with delays of 1 - 5 years!EFFICIENCY - OUR FOCUS. 34Source: Bundesnetzagentur, as of August 2012.Bildgröße 9,74 cm x 24,56 cman den Hilfslinien ausrichtenund weiße Linie in den Vordergrund bringenFlexibility Instruments.EFFICIENCY - OUR FOCUS. 37Flexibility Options – Demand Side Management (DSM).Yearly consumptionYearly consumption Technical potentialTechnicalSector of DSM-capablePotential of sector [TWh] for load cuts [GW]processes [TWh]Industry 256.0 102.6 5.8Trade and commerce 75.5 29.6 2.1Households 139.5 85.1 7.3Sum 471.0 217.3 15.2Economical potential Utilization by modified frameworkHH Ind_ProcessesTCS HH Ind_Processes Ind_c. section Clarif. plantsEFFICIENCY - OUR FOCUS. 38Source: dena Grid Study II, 2010Classification of energy storage by area of use andprovision of power.Source: denaCurrently only pump storage, compressed air storage and hydrogen applications can beused as high-performance storage technology.Further energy storage capacity and technologies are required.EFFICIENCY - OUR FOCUS. 39Overview of the power to gas process.Wasserstoff mithilfe vonStrom erzeugen und in Wasserstoff oder Das Gas zurErneuerbaren das Gasnetz synthetisches StromerzeugungStrom einspeisen; ggf. aus Erdgas im oder fürerzeugen und Wasserstoff und Erdgasnetz und Endkunden-in das Kohlendioxid den anwendungenStromnetz synthetisches Erdgas dazugehörigen nutzen, z.B. zureinspeisen erzeugen Erdgasspeichern Wärmeerzeugungund in das Gasnetz speichern oder als Kraftstoffeinspeisen.EFFICIENCY - OUR FOCUS. 40Conclusions.EFFICIENCY - OUR FOCUS. 41Energy efficiency must be a fundamental element of theenergy turnaround.. Efficiency at all stages of the value-addingchain.Efficient expansion using REGtechnologies, with harmonization of theexpansion planning of the Federal States.Synchronisation of further REG expansionwith expansion of the infrastructures andenergy storage systems.http://www.iitf.at/forschung/innovationsforschung/Fundamental reform of the EEG needed forthis.Energy-efficient building renovation.Renewal of the fossil fuel power stationinventory.Coordination of the energy turnaround with European neighbours.We are all responsible for the success of the energy turnaround.EFFICIENCY - OUR FOCUS. 42Efficiency – our focus.Thank you.www.dena.deb2b.dena.deEFFICIENCY - OUR FOCUS. 43