Deppisch presentation 22 BSPC

Climate Change and Spatial Development:Adaptation strategies of urban and regional planning in urbanregions of the Baltic Sea coastSonja Deppisch, Dr.-Ing.plan B:altic – climate change and spatial developmentin urban regions of the Baltic Sea coastSonja Deppisch, Dr.-Ing.Head research group plan B:alticUrban Planning and Regional DevelopmentHafenCity University Hamburg, GermanyBaltic Sea Parliamentary Conference, 26th August 20131Climate Change and Spatial Development:Adaptation strategies of urban and regional planning in urbanregions of the Baltic Sea coastSonja Deppisch, Dr.-Ing.Overview1. Climate change impacts on cities in the Baltic Sea basin2. plan B:altic and its specific science – practice collaboration3. Lessons for an uncertain and eventually surprising future2Climate Change and Spatial Development:Adaptation strategies of urban and regional planning in urbanregions of the Baltic Sea coastSonja Deppisch, Dr.-Ing.1. Climate change impacts on urban complexes in theBaltic Sea basin*• Impacts differ due to the location of the urbancomplexes, be they in the northern or southernpart of the catchment, directly at the Baltic Seacoast or more inland.• Every urban complex is a unique mixture ofinfrastructure and urban services, inhabitants,natural resources and green spaces, builtstructures, location, economic and societalfactors - hardly possible to generalize thepotential extent of climate change impacts fromsingle-case studiesreview done for BACC II – Authors: Deppisch S., Juhola S., Janßen H., Richter M.*3Climate Change and Spatial Development:Adaptation strategies of urban and regional planning in urbanregions of the Baltic Sea coastSonja Deppisch, Dr.-Ing.1. Climate change impacts on urban complexes in theBaltic Sea basin3 KEY MESSAGES:Message 1:Climate change impacts, which affect technicalinfrastructure, building, housing and settlementstructures most: sea level rise, extreme events likestorm surges and the changing precipitationpatterns, particularly flooding, caused by expectedPopulation density of Copenhagen under and above 2 m elevation, and coastalprotection, indicated by colored ellipsoids (green for 3.5mprotection; yellow forincrease in heavy precipitation events. 2.0mprotection and red for 1.5mprotection) in the period 1992–2002. (Hallegatteet al 2011)As the net-sea level rise is expected to be higher inthe southern Baltic Sea, southern coastal cities willbe more affected4High tides of 226cm over sea level flood Inner Copenhagen – a high tide whichcould statistically come every 20 years in 2110 (City of Copenhagen 2011)Climate Change and Spatial Development:Adaptation strategies of urban and regional planning in urbanregions of the Baltic Sea coastSonja Deppisch, Dr.-Ing.A. Climate change impacts on urban complexes in theBaltic Sea basinMessage 2:Vulnerability of the urban population differsbetween different groups of society, based ongender, age and further characteristics.Research shows that climate change can haveimmediate and lasting impacts on the urbanpopulation with the main stressors beingsevere weather events, thermal stress andchanges in air quality.5Climate Change and Spatial Development:Adaptation strategies of urban and regional planning in urbanregions of the Baltic Sea coastSonja Deppisch, Dr.-Ing.1. Climate change impacts on urban complexes in theBaltic Sea basinMessage 3:As climate change will have manifold impacts onthe socio-economic structures in the citiesaround the Baltic Sea, cities have taken steps toadapt to the impacts of these changes (e.g.Copenhagen, Helsinki, Stockholm, Rostock).Many cities have pursued strategies, whichidentify particular climate change impacts andare in the process of developing adaptationstrategies.6Climate Change and Spatial Development:Adaptation strategies of urban and regional planning in urbanregions of the Baltic Sea coastSonja Deppisch, Dr.-Ing.2. plan B:altic* and its specific science – practicecollaborationFunded b y German national social-ecological researchfund 2009 - 2014Focus on urban and regional planning – how to dealresiliently with climate change impacts in urbanregions of the Baltic Sea coastHolistic inter-and transdisciplinary perspectiveBased on a broad range of case studies of urban regionsat the Baltic Sea coast, especially Rostock (Germany),Stockholm (Sweden) and Riga (Latvia), partlyCopenhagen (Denmark)We cross borders not only between scientific disciplinesbut also to practice => strong collaboration withpractitioners from Rostock (Germany)* the plan B:altic research group: Deppisch, S. ; Albers, M.; Beichler, S.; Hagemeier-Klose, M.; Hasibovic, S.; Richter, 7M.; Wibbeling, P.Climate Change and Spatial Development:Adaptation strategies of urban and regional planning in urbanregions of the Baltic Sea coastSonja Deppisch, Dr.-Ing.2. plan B:altic and its specific science – practice collaborationMethod of science – practice collaboration: strategic scenario planning(2010 – 2012; 3 main workshops), involving around 40 key stakeholders(politics, economy, environmental and planning administration, civil society),close co-operation within an established core working group (practitionersfrom urban and regional adminsitration and scientists) 8Climate Change and Spatial Development:Adaptation strategies of urban and regional planning in urbanregions of the Baltic Sea coastSonja Deppisch, Dr.-Ing.2. plan B:altic and its specific science – practice collaborationMethod to cope with uncertainties, potential states of notknowing and surprising events related to climate change andwith complexity of possible future developmentsBoth integrated: impacts of climate change (regional climatechange scenarios of IPCC) and future developments ofsociety and of land-useParticipatory process that can facilitate the local society intheir adaptation efforts, multiple viewpoints and societalknowledgecan be integratedPlatform for exchange and integration of different forms ofknowledge (scientific, lay or informal) relevantfor adaptation9Climate Change and Spatial Development:Adaptation strategies of urban and regional planning in urbanregions of the Baltic Sea coastSonja Deppisch, Dr.-Ing.2. plan B:altic and its specific science – practicecollaborationFirst Scenario-Workshop on climateI Definition of the Spatial development 2050subject Decision-making within the transdisciplinary processchange and spatial development inRostock and the suburban-region with a II Identification of Key factors of spatial developmentkey factors Identifying key factors within the transdisciplinary processwider participation of stakeholders.Workshop 1III Analysis of keyJoint analysis of the situation: „Key factors for the future“factorsDiscussion of alternative future developmentsWhich impacts does climate change haveInterdisciplinary process within plan B:altic• Evaluation of results of the first workshopon the suburban-region? • Relevance and interactions between key factors• Interactions between key factors and climate change• Translation into scenarios (computer-based)Discussion of alternative future• Result: Four consistent scenariosdevelopments Transdisciplinary process• Discussion of scenarios• Revision of scenarios• Selection of scenarios for the second workshopWorkshop 2Second Scenario-Workshop Discussion IV Development of„Scenarios as images of the future“scenariosDiscussion of scenariosof scenarios: In which ways could theInterdisciplinary process within plan B:alticsuburban-region develop? • Evaluation of results of the second workshop• Revision of scenariosTransdisciplinary process• Decisions concerning the third workshopThird Scenario-Workshop Workshop 3V Transfer of„Climate change adaptation strategies“scenariosDevelopment of measures and strategies – Development of measures and strategiesstructural, spatial, behavioural10Climate Change and Spatial Development:Adaptation strategies of urban and regional planning in urbanregions of the Baltic Sea coastSonja Deppisch, Dr.-Ing.3. Lessons for an uncertain and eventually surprisingfutureChallenges:• Climate change is an important challenge, impacts are felt already now. But:Because of the long-term character of climate change practitioners do notfeel immediate urge to act, but: urban planning has long-termconsequences• Climate change impacts interact with ecological and societal developments,integrated analysis difficult due to sectoral organisation of administration –social – ecological interdepnedencies are neglected now• Due to twofold complexity (climate change and cities): uncertaintyespecially difficult to communicate or even to tackle• Tendency to discuss the most “likely“ or the most “desirable“ futuredevelopment11Climate Change and Spatial Development:Adaptation strategies of urban and regional planning in urbanregions of the Baltic Sea coastSonja Deppisch, Dr.-Ing.3. Lessons for an uncertain and eventually surprisingfutureChallenges:• Uncertainty and potential states of not knowing point on need forlocal and regional sense-making – planning as political task (and not atechnical endeavour only) and related ethical challenges• Political support for dealing with climate change impacts important12Climate Change and Spatial Development:Adaptation strategies of urban and regional planning in urbanregions of the Baltic Sea coastSonja Deppisch, Dr.-Ing.3. Lessons for an uncertain and eventually surprisingfutureOpportunities:• The scenario-planning process... initiated a regional learning process... contributed to the decision of the “Bürgerschaft“ in Rostock to develop aframework concept for climate change adaptation... made the participation of relevant regional stakeholders possible andstrengthend the issue among them... showed the necessity for climate change adaption now... exchanged knowledge and new networks have the potential to improveframework conditions in a sustainable way....showed that integrative perpectives are possible13Climate Change and Spatial Development:Adaptation strategies of urban and regional planning in urbanregions of the Baltic Sea coastSonja Deppisch, Dr.-Ing.3. Lessons for an uncertain and eventually surprisingfuture• More flexib le appproaches in spatial planning are dependent on planning law –e.g. open and flexible urban plan which can integrate new knowledge possiblein Sweden, but not in Germany• Use of leitmotifs possible within planning which focus on social-ecologicalinterdependencies, on uncertainty and surprising events (e.g. resilience)• Crossing of sectors and of adminsitrative scales necessary and : possible14Climate Change and Spatial Development:Adaptation strategies of urban and regional planning in urbanregions of the Baltic Sea coastSonja Deppisch, Dr.-Ing.Thank you for your attention!Sonja Deppisch, Dr.-Ing.Head of research group plan B:alticHafenCity University HamburgUrban Planning and Regional DevelopmentWinterhuder Weg 3122085 Hamburg, Germanyemail: sonja.deppisch@hcu-hamburg.dephone: 040 - 42827-4508 15Climate Change and Spatial Development:Adaptation strategies of urban and regional planning in urbanregions of the Baltic Sea coastSonja Deppisch, Dr.-Ing.A. Climate change in urban regions : temperature riseTemperature rise meets urban heat islands, air quality, specific built andopen structures and vulnerabilities and could affect:infrastructureHumanhealthandwell-beingBuildings (cooling) andBiodi-recreational economy (tourism)versityandgreenspaces16Climate Change and Spatial Development:Adaptation strategies of urban and regional planning in urbanregions of the Baltic Sea coastSonja Deppisch, Dr.-Ing.A. Climate change: Sea-level rise and impacts in coastalurban regionsLosses ofcoastalhabitats,salt-waterintrusion infreshwaterreservoirsLow-lying urban service infrastructuresand related services, transport lines,settlement structures, ports, airports=> Settlement structure and land-use,17socio-economic assets, ecosystem servicesClimate Change and Spatial Development:Adaptation strategies of urban and regional planning in urbanregions of the Baltic Sea coastSonja Deppisch, Dr.-Ing.A. Climate change: precipitation patterns and extremeweather eventsDroughts, heavy rain events with floods, storms, storm surges with floods18Climate Change and Spatial Development:Adaptation strategies of urban and regional planning in urbanregions of the Baltic Sea coastSonja Deppisch, Dr.-Ing.Development of scenariosinterrelationships and importance analysedcombined to scenarios of future spatial developmentChoice of scenarios by: differentiability, consistency, interpretability,rangeSpatial development in the Rostock RegionKey factor A Key factor B Key factor C Key factor ...A.1 A.2 A.3 B.1 B.2 B.3 C.1 C.2 C.3 ... ... ...Scenario 1 Scenario 2 Scenario ...19Climate Change and Spatial Development:Adaptation strategies of urban and regional planning in urbanregions of the Baltic Sea coastSonja Deppisch, Dr.-Ing.Development of scenariosHarbor andRelevance for spatialWater Sea level rise maritimedevelopmenteconomyWeakMediumDevelopment andquality of free Increase in Tourism StrongtemperatureareasAgriculture and Changes in Demographicforestry precipitation structureRelationshipHousingurban-rural Extreme weathereventsRetail andEnergy policyindustryPolicy priorities Financial situationTransportEuropean infrastructureUnion Legalinstruments 20Climate Change and Spatial Development:Adaptation strategies of urban and regional planning in urbanregions of the Baltic Sea coastSonja Deppisch, Dr.-Ing.Four different “images of the future“Szenario 1: „Entwicklung in Grenzen“Szenario 3: „Klima der Extreme“Szenario 2: „Alles in Maßen“Szenario 4: „Divers geprägt“21