Kaivo-Oja presentation 22 BSPC

Slide 1:Research Director,Adjunct ProfessorJari Kaivo-ojaFinland Futures Research Centre (FFRC)Turku School of Economics, University of TurkuChanging Social Structures in the Baltic Sea Region: urgent NEEDs for target minded Baltic Sea green growth co-operation and systemic social innovationsSlide 2:Changing economic structures: key themesGreen growth paradigm, global climate change, CO2 emissionsEconomic growth, employment, investmentsHousehold incomes, welfare,Income distributionVarious trend analysesSlide 3:From triple helix to quartet helix (Kaivo-oja 2011)The AcademiaThe IndustriesThe GovernmentConsumers and end-usersSlide 4:Sixth wave and green growth as an european challengeKey Driverds for the 6th WaveKey trajectories for social changeKey innovation platformsKey megatrendsRise of complex docietiesWeb-based empowerment of peopleMaturing environmental concernsGrowth of health servicesDigitalization anddominance of secondeconomyDemographic changeImplying ageing andlongevityGlobalization:decentralization of global powersThe rise of bioeconomyThe expansion of resourceefficient technologiesSlide 5:3-level model of systemic innovationSixth Wave: Megatrends and macrotrendsSocio-technical regime ASocio-technical regime BSocio-technical regime CSocio-technical regime DSocio-technical regime ENiche BNiche CNiche DNiche level: New ideas and inventionsLandscapeSocio-technical regimesSlide 6:From internet to robotics: a future source for productivity and smartnessSource: ASIMO 2012See more European Robotics Week 2013:http://www.eurobotics-project.eu/euroboticsSlide 7:Systemic innovation perspective: ”Killer innovation model” (Kaivo-oja 2011)Business-innovationSocial innovationSystemic TBI innovationTechnological innovationSlide 8:Example of systemic innovation thinking (Korean Ubiquitous City Association 2006)Slide 9:Green growth strategy as innovation challenge (Green Growth Knowledge Platform 2013)Green growth requires that public agencies are(1) able to price externalities and value environmental assets,(2) stakeholders are able to find innovations (technological, business and social innovations) to break unsustainable development paths,(3) the creation and dissemination of new environmentally sustainable technologies, goods and services,(4) sectoral shifts and changes in comparative advantage that inevitably imply winners and losers.Slide 10:Green Growth and Needs of Socio-Cultural Changes (Source: Greeen Growth Knowledge Platform 2013)Slide 11:Stages of Public Policy for the Baltic Sea PoliticsTypical stages of public policy are:(1) Agenda setting,(2) policy formulation,(3) decision-making,(4) policy implementation and(5) monitoring and evaluation.Slide 12:GDP growth (%) in the Baltic Sea countries, years 1961-2012Slide 13:Baltic Sea region (average growth rate of 11 BS countries, %)Slide 14:Average economic growth, Baltic Sea countries (average GDP growth of the BS countries, %)Slide 15:Employment rates of native- and foreign-born population by educational attainment in some Baltic Sea countries, year 2007 (OECD 2012)2007 | Difference between native-born and foreign-bornNative-born | Foreign-born | 2007Low | High | Total | Low | High | TotalDenmark | 51,98113 | 82,02673 | 63,88262 | 50,87713 | 73,44987 | 57,68003 | 6,2Estonia | 29,51551 | 82,47014 | 59,66663 | 20,08191 | 69,1683 | 48,30696 | 11,4Finland | 29,11994 | 76,27982 | 56,96619 | 39,21423 | 71,58916 | 59,89582 | -2,9Germany | 29,76301 | 74,06977 | 55,8576 | -Norway | 51,39146 | 86,32908 | 71,08491 | 52,2312 | 82,43884 | 68,05048 | 3,0Poland | 17,9292 | 76,31345 | 48,92329 | 4,222524 | 44,9374 | 14,06986 | 34,9Sweden | 44,76384 | 82,49948 | 68,42363 | 40,84492 | 73,36278 | 57,62029 | 10,8Russian Federation | 30,1 | 79,1 | 57,9 | 32,4 | 76,4 | 60,7 | -2,8Slide 16:Employment rates of native- and foreign-born population by educational attainment in some Baltic Sea countries, year 2011 (OECD 2012)2011 | Difference between native-born and foreign-bornNative-born | Foreign-born | 2011Low | High | Total | Low | High | TotalDenmark | 58,86311 | 86,57713 | 74,71888 | 48,41797 | 75,98556 | 61,6778 | 13,04Estonia | 30,99904 | 80,78799 | 65,32655 | 29,30565 | 69,61436 | 63,89933 | 1,43Finland | 40,99464 | 84,81853 | 69,40752 | 44,85007 | 69,20665 | 61,12176 | 8,28Germany | 43,21679 | 89,26231 | 73,75694 | 53,40668 | 77,31918 | 66,49925 | 7,26Norway | 58,20015 | 90,55224 | 75,97524 | 55,67231 | 82,04932 | 70,20329 | 5,77Poland | 23,48173 | 82,43909 | 59,66775 | 15,22522 | 72,22753 | 55,33718 | 4,33Sweden | 48,67034 | 89,71784 | 76,58259 | 43,94978 | 75,16999 | 62,57937 | 14,00Russian FederationSlide 17:Real household disposable income: changes in some Baltic Sea countries (OECD 2012)Slide 18:Investments (Gross fixed capital formation, % changes) in some Baltic Sea countries, in the EU-27, EA17, Russia: changes in 1999-2001, 2008-2010 (OECD 2012)Slide 19:Active population in the Baltic Sea countries (%, 15-64 years old)Slide 20:Active population in the Baltic Sea region, years 1960-2012Slide 21:Youth population under the age of 15 in some Baltic Sea countries and in the EU-27, 2000-2050 (OECD 2012)Slide 22:Elderly population (65 or over 65 years) in some Baltic Sea countries and in the EU-27, 2000-2050 (OECD 2012)Slide 23:Population less than 15 years old and 65 or over 65 years old in the Baltic Sea countries (OECD 2012)Slide 24:Value added of industry in the Baltic Sea countries (%, value added of GDP), years 1966-2010Slide 25:Average, value added (% of GDP) in Baltic countries, years 1996-2010Slide 26:High-tech exports in some Baltic Sea countries, years 2007-2012 (Eurostat 2013)Slide 27:Employment in high- and medium-high-technology manufacturing sectors, Share of total employment (%) (eurostat 2013)Slide 28:Employment in knowledge-intensive service sectors, share of total employment in some Baltic Sea countries, years 1997-2008 (eurostat 2013)Slide 29:Research and development expenditure, by sectors of performance, % of GDP (Eurostat 2013)Slide 30:CO2 emissions in Germany, in Poland and in the Russian Fed., years 1992-2009Slide 31:CO2 emissions (tons) in Baltic Sea countries, years 1992-2009Slide 32:Gross domestic expenditure on R&D in some Baltic Sea countries, years 1981-2010Slide 33:Venture capital investments, % of GDP in some Baltic Sea countries, years 2007-2012 (Eurostat 2013)Slide 34:Gross Domestic Expenditure on R&D - GERD (million current PPP $) in EU-28, EU-15, USA, Japan, China, Russia and South AfricaSlide 35:Some POLICY recommendationsCo-operation in the field of the development of social innovations (education, employment and job creation) is a challenging issue in the Baltic Sea region: more strategic co-operation is needed among BS partnersMore productive use of innovation and R&D allocations are needed in near futureBaltic Sea countries should position themselves more systematically and aggresively in the global trade arenaThe Baltic Sea countries are key players in the EU ́s innovation policy arene: they should get more attention inside in the R&D/innovation field the European UnionGreen Growth challenge is a shared challenge in the Baltic Sea countries: Green Growth Knowledge Platform needs more political attention in the Baltic Sea co-operationSlide 36:Thank you!Research Director, Adjunct Prof. Jari Kaivo-ojaFinland Futures Research Centre, Turku School of EconomicsEmail: jari.kaivo-oja@utu.fiWeb: http://www.utu.fi/en/units/ffrc/Pages/home.aspxTel. +358-(2) 333 9832, +358-(41) 753 0244