Kramme speech at 28 BSPC

The 28th Baltic Sea Parliamentary ConferenceOslo, Norway, 25 – 27 August 2019Clean Oceans & the Future of Working LifeChallenges and VisionsMonday, 26 AugustSECOND SESSIONThe Future of Working LifeMinisters of Labour and High-level representatives ofthe Labour MinistriesMs Anette Kramme,Parliamentary State Secretary at the Federal Ministry of Labour and Social Affairs, GermanyCheck against delivery. Only the speech as given has any validity.I. IntroductionI would like to thank you, including on behalf of Federal Labour Minister Hubertus Heil, for giving me the opportunity to participate in this conference, where we are discussing important issues such as “clean oceans” and the “future of work”, I am looking forward to being part of the debate.II. Drivers of the changes in the world of workThe world of work is in the midst of sweeping changes - in Germany, in Europe and around the world.There is no doubt that digitalisation is one of the most important drivers influencing tomorrow’s world of work. Digitalisation is creating a new technological framework and opportunities in the fields of interaction with others, production, business organisation and flexible working structures. It is also profoundly affecting interaction with others as well as leadership.But digitalisation is not the only driver of these changes. Other drivers include globalisation: Globalisation is fundamentally changing companies’ scope for action and that of their employees. It allows us to trade and communicate across borders, and it is apparent that is has led to more migration; yet other drivers are demographic change and ongoing changes within our societies.Today, I would especially like to focus on two trends shaping our digitalised world of work. As we speak, they are causing uncertainties about the future of the world of work and thus require political answers.III. AutomationLet us first have a look at the trend towards the automation of professional activities.Often fears about the digitalisation of the world of work are linked to the fear that in future we will need fewer workers than today and that therefore more people will be out of work.In light of the rapid technological changes, there is a growing focus on the debate about the automation of professional activities and the presumed substitution potential of human work.That is probably partially due to the fact that so far we have associated automation with the replacement of physical human work. But the deployment of artificial intelligence also has the potential of increasingly letting machines carry out routine cognitive tasks usually performed by humans.What is true is that automation is deeply transforming our world of work. In the future, the job profiles of many occupations will look completely different. However, that does not mean that digital change will lead to mass lay-offs. But work will change.Forecasts by the Federal Ministry of Labour and Social Affairs estimate that by 2025 1.3 million jobs will have disappeared, but that 2.1 million new jobs will have been added. We expect an increase of 3.3 million and a loss of 4 million jobs by the year 2035.So on the one hand, we are losing jobs. But at the same time, many new jobs are emerging.Fear of mass unemployment caused by digitalisation is not a good adviser for our policies for the future of work.IV. Skilled labour shortagesInstead, we must ask ourselves which jobs will disappear, which ones will be created and whether the people losing their jobs will be able to perform the new tasks with their qualifications.Although the exact form these major transformation processes will take cannot yet be predicted in detail, there is one constant factor in the midst of all these changes: the role played by well-trained skilled workers for labour markets, companies’ ability to innovate and Germany’s and Europe’s overall economic development.Organisations and businesses are already finding it hard to recruit skilled workers with certain qualifications or in certain sectors and regions.While demographic change is exacerbating skilled labour shortages in some occupations and regions (in Germany, this is the case for long-term care work)....... the demand for skilled labour is going down in other occupations and regions due to the potential for substitution offered by technological progress (e.g. in accounting and financial control).In order to avoid the paradox of skilled labour shortages co-existing with a surplus of workers, the Federal Ministry of Labour and Social Affairs has developed a new Skilled Labour Strategy on behalf of the German Government in a dialogue process involving the social partners.The core element of this strategy is the notion that further training and skills development are increasingly becoming key tasks for the future of Germany and Europe. We have to tackle them together if we want to shape the digital transformation successfully in the interest of our workers and our companies.In Germany, the Federal Labour Ministry is working on a National Skills Strategy. But it is also important that we as partners exchange experiences across borders in order to respond to the challenges brought about by the digitalisation of our world of work - which is precisely what we are doing today.If we in Europe want to make use of the potential offered by the digital revolution, we must invest more in skills development and further training. This is essential if we want to preserve workers’ employability and avoid unemployment before it is caused by the changes I described, and if we simultaneously want to ensure a sufficient pool of skilled labour.V. Artificial intelligence as a driver of the changes in the world of workAlongside the trends I described, for which we need political answers, there are also a number of drivers defining these trends as well as the speed of change in the world of work. I would like to use artificial intelligence as an example for how profoundly individual technological changes can affect the world of work and how the German Government is responding.Progress in AI research will most likely lead to new applications in manufacturing, such as smart assistance systems and co-bots, as well as in the service sector such as marketing tools and knowledge work, changing job profiles, areas of responsibility and the skill sets of our workers.The results of a 2018 study by Stifterverband and McKinsey on future skills and the skills missing in Germany clearly point in this direction. In the period leading up to 2023, we will already need up to 700,000 technology experts.More than 2.4 million workers will have to enrol in further training in order to expand their skills in digital learning, networked teamwork or entrepreneurial competences.That is why in its AI Strategy, the German Government has committed itself to the promotion of human-centred AI. What does this mean? Well, essentially that artificial intelligence should not be developed with the goal of replacing humans, but rather primarily with the goal of enhancing human capabilities.This example illustrates that policy-makers must promote human-centred technological innovation and invest in further training and skills development. This is the only way in which we can overcome the challenges posed by the digital changes in the world of work.Thank you for your attention and I am looking forward to the other statements.