Impuls BSPC Hamburg 20211115 Jacob2
Climate Change and Findings of the IPCC AR 6Daniela Jacob15.11.2021 | Meeting of the Standing Committee of the Baltic Sea Parliamentary Conference2© Climate Service Center GermanyMarch2021:418 ppmCO2andMethan concentrationsin theatmosphereSource: https://www.esrl.noaa.gov/gmd/ccgg/trends/mlo.htmlCO2in the atmosphere (1958-2020)Methanin the atmosphere (1983-2021)highestconc.end of20203© Climate Service Center GermanyAttributablehuman inducedglobal warminguntil2020 (vs1850-1900)Source: https://www.globalwarmingindex.org/4© Climate Service Center GermanyDecadalaverageofmeantemperaturechange(1881-2020) & the10 warmestyearsin Germany (annualmeantemperature)Source: https://www.dwd.de/DE/leistungen/besondereereignisse/temperatur/20210106_rueckblick_jahr_2020.pdf?__blob=publicationFile&v=75© Climate Service Center GermanySource: KnuttiandSedlacek2012, Nature ClimateChangeProjectedglobal meantemperaturechangeSource: https://climateactiontracker.org6© Climate Service Center GermanyIPCC special report SR1.5Key statementsoftheSummary forPolicymakers(Part B “ProjectedClimate Change, Potential Impacts andAssociated Risks”)Impacts of global warming –1.5°C compared to 2°C§Less extreme weather where people live, including extreme heat and rainfall§By 2100, global mean sea level rise will be around 10 cm lower but may continue to rise for centuries§10 million fewer people exposed to risk of rising seas.§Lower impact on biodiversity and species.§Smaller reductions in yields of maize, rice, wheat§Global population exposed to increased water shortages is up to 50% less§Lower risk to fisheries and the livelihoods that depend on them§Up to several hundred million fewer people exposed to climate-related risk and susceptible to poverty by 20507© Climate Service Center GermanyIPCC reportAR6 –keymessagesoftheexperts(WG I)Source: https://twitter.com/IPCC_CH8© Climate Service Center GermanyIPCC reportAR6 (WG I) –findings(Summary forPolicymakers)Source: https://www.ipcc.ch/report/ar6/wg1/downloads/report/IPCC_AR6_WGI_SPM_final.pdfWith every increment of global warming, changes get larger in regional mean temperature and precipitation9© Climate Service Center GermanyIPCC reportAR6 (WG I) –findings(Summary forPolicymakers)With every increment of global warming, changes get larger in regional mean temperature and precipitationSource: https://www.ipcc.ch/report/ar6/wg1/downloads/report/IPCC_AR6_WGI_SPM_final.pdf10© Climate Service Center GermanyIPCC reportAR6 (WG I) –findings(Summary forPolicymakers)Projected changes in extremes are larger in frequency and intensity with every additional increment of global warmingSource: https://www.ipcc.ch/report/ar6/wg1/downloads/report/IPCC_AR6_WGI_SPM_final.pdf11© Climate Service Center GermanyIPCC reportAR6 (WG I) –findings(Summary forPolicymakers)Numberofland& coastalregions(a) andopen-oceanregions(b) whereeachclimaticimpact-driver (CID) isprojectedtoincreaseordecreasewithhigh confidence(darkshade) ormedium confidence(light shade)Source: https://www.ipcc.ch/report/ar6/wg1/downloads/report/IPCC_AR6_WGI_SPM_final.pdf12© Climate Service Center GermanyImpacts of climate change -IPCC special report SR1.5SPM2|How the level of global warming affects impacts and/or risks associated with the Reasons for Concern (RFCs) and selected natural, managed and human systemsConfidence level: M, medium; H, high; VH; veryhigh13© Climate Service Center GermanyBasic structure of climate pathwaysSource: Ludereret al. (2018): Residual fossil CO emissions in 1.5-2°C pathways. Nature Climate Change / E. Kriegler (PIK, 2018) (modified)Decarbonisation of theenergy sector; end of use of coal without CCSCompensation of residual emissionsCompensation of overshootCO2-neutral societyElectrification of end-useChallenges:-Freight traffic, air traffic, shipping-Heavy industryRedirection of investment from fossil to CO2-neutral energy14© Climate Service Center GermanyIt is time to combateclimate change and to adapt...§Forourenvironment§Forushumans§Foroureconomy§Forourinfrastructure§Forourwayoflife§Forourhabitats§coastsarefloodedanderoded§Small islandbecomeuninhabitable§Coastalcities/villageshavetoberelocated§.... andmanymore....§Forthewell-beingofthenextgenerationsIt‘s in our hands!15© Climate Service Center GermanyThankYou