AMAP_Climate_Baltic

ARCTIC MONITORING ANDASSESSMENT PROGRAMMEAbout AMAPRolf Rødven, Executive SecretaryAMAP Mandate:“to monitor the levels of, and assess the effects of, anthropogenicpollutants in all components of the Arctic environment.”“... assessment of the effects of {...} climate change on Arcticecosystems.”“... human health impacts and the effects of multiple stressors.“PRODUCTS• Scientific assessments with peer review• Summary for Policy Makers (SPM’s)• Monitoring programmes and guidelines (harmonization)• Advice to the Arctic Council and Senior Arctic Officials• Advice/data to international organs - IPCC, Stockholm,Minamata, Air Convention, WHO and othersAMAP Monitoring of Contaminants ‘Trends and Effects’• Based on nationalprograms• Harmonizedmonitoring defined interms of sub-programsfor:• Atmosphere• Terrestrial• Freshwater• Marine• Humans• Research to supportAssessment workArtic warming• Arctic warms 3 timesfaster than global average• Since 1971:• 3.1 °C warmer• 9 % more precipitation• 24 % more rain• 2-3 °C warmer permafrost• 21 % less snow in spring• 43 % less extensive sea ice(1979)• Massive loss mass loss ofGreenland land ice• Why so fast?• Arctic AmplificationSocietal impacts• Arctic, a home to:• 4 mill people• More than 40 ethnical groups (9%)• 74 % in larger settlements (>5000)• 90 % of settlements are small• 64 % of settlements on permafrost• Transportation• Greenland – 2 mo. less dog sledging• Less access to remote settlements (permafrost)• Roads• Coastal erosion• More boating – but more storms• Livelihood• Traditional livelihoods affected• Traditional diet to western diet• New opportunities:• tourism, fisheries, oil and gas etc.Schematic of the coastal carbon cycleBellerby, Nature Climate Change, 2017, AMAP 2017.Some of the fastest rates of ocean acidificationare occurring in the Arctic.Widespread Severe Pteropod Shell Dissolution in Amundsen Gulf(Canadian Arctic)Cod fisheries in the Barents SeaThe Arctic and subarctic regions yield a tenth of • Acidification and warming greatlythe global commercial catch, and subsistence increase juvenile mortalityfisheries provide vital nutritional and culturalservices to Arctic residents• Maintained risk regime:• Annual catch reduction: 900000 tonn to 150 000 tonn• Revenue: USD 285 mill to 37mill USDFuture Ocean AcidificationClimate change and contaminants in Arcticecosystems and wildlifeDoes science matter in policy making?2023 biennial climate update reportChapter 1: Introduction and synthesis of key climate indicatorsChapter 2: Cryosphere including permafrostChapter 3: HydrologyChapter 4: Arctic ocean acidificationChapter 5: Thresholds and extreme eventsChapter 6: WildfiresChapter 7: Arctic/mid latitude weather connectivityChapter 8: Summary report for AMAP-CAFF project on “Climate change impacts onArctic ecosystems and associated climate feedbacks”PLANNED AMAP-CAFF CLIMATE WORKTHANK YOU