Russia Great Power of Flows (Tynkkynen)

BSPC WORKING GROUP MEETING, HELSINKIRUSSIA’S STRATEGY–A GREAT POWER OF FLOWSVELI-PEKKA TYNKKYNEN , UNIVERSITY OF HELSINKI25.3.2024 2Russia’s imperial and colonial battle againstdemocracy and the energy transition•Colonial and imperial Russia: the culture, language and sovereignty ofUkraine & Belarus etc. not possible•Democratic Ukraine an anti-Russian model•Energy revenues have centralized power: 1/3 of the state budget toviolence & 1% owns > 60% of the wealth•Hydrocarbon Culture: paving the way from autarky & autocracy todictatorship•“Fossil Empire”: mystified history, 19th century geopolitics, 20th centurymeans of production-> against technological modernization, energytransition and climate action; lose-lose thinking: let Russia suffer aslong as others suffer more25.3.2024 325.3.2024 425.3.2024 5Russia’s imperial materialitiesFrom an energy Superpower to a Great Power of flows•Seeing like Russia: all “flows” as means of coercion and repression•Flows of violence in Russia’s war against Ukraine: weapons/troops,infrastructure & ecocide, deported & Russianized Ukrainians etc.•Fear as Russia’s main export commodity: “we will nuke you!” (as ifRussia was the only nuclear power)25.3.2024 6Russia’s imperial materialitiesFrom an energy Superpower to a Great Power of flows•Energy: from soft to hard weapon–and back to soft•Transport routes: aviation & the NE Passage•Metals: steel, light metals, strategic /en. transition materials (nickel & lithium)•Grain: “hunger game”, destroying Ukrainian fields, granaries, blocking ships•Environment: coercing and exporting fear via ecocide and hazards•People: refugees 2015-> a sharpened tool in Poland 2021, Finland 2023•Cyber: “sovereign internet” & cyber attacks, info war•Critical infrastructure: targeting and threatening western infra•Money: funding right/left-wing extremists in the west•Assassinations: covert killings and sabotage in Europe25.3.2024 7European money and technologyfeeding Russia’s violence1991–2008money, arms, technology2008–2014money, arms, investments,technology2014–2022money, technology2022 – nowmoneyTHANK YOU!3/25/2024 8