2 Jonas Aa Baltic Sea Visit JAa FINAL 25-03-12

Sustainable Transport 2035 -Consumption based life -cycle emissions aligned with the Paris AgreementÅkerman, J., Höjer, M., Berg Mårtensson, H. (forthcoming)Jonas ÅkermanResearch leaderDep. of Sustainable Development ,Environmental Science andEngineeringKTHRoyal Institute of Technologyjonas.akerman@abe.kth.seGHG emissions from Swedish transport- Consumption based life -cycle perspective0,002,004,006,008,0010,0012,0014,00Short-distancetravelLong-distancetravelFreight Indirectemissions(Milj ton CO2 -ekv.)Inom 2030-målet UtanförSource: Åkerman, J., Höjer, M., Berg Mårtensson, H. Sustainable Transport 2035 (forthcoming )Key challenges - Sea and air transportReducing climate impact of Aviation•Non -CO2 effects stand for 40% of climate impact of aviation•Very small potential for battery electric aircraft•Biofuels is part of the solution, but are limited in supply•Electrofuels avoid the competition for productive land, but are (even more )expensive and require large quantities of electricity•Digital meetings can replace many business trips•Shorter flights may be replaced by modern day and night trainsThe future is uncertain ...butprobably these fuels...Passenger cars :Some biofuels at present, but electrification is rapid. Fully electrified fleet around2040 (in Sweden)Trucks:Some biofuels at present.Then a combination of electricity , biogas ( methane ) and hydrogenAircraft:Small amount of Biofuel the coming 5 -10 years . Then gradual but slow shift toelectrofuel . Hydrogen may be phased in from 2035.Sea transport:Electrification for shortest routes ( even Nynäshamn -Visby) For longer routesbiogas ( methane ), hydrogen, electrofuels , ammonia .Swedes’ travel per capita in 2018and sustainable scenario for 2035In line with max 1.8 degree of global warming02 0004 0006 0008 00010 00012 00014 000Car Bus Rail Ferry Air(pkm/capita )2018 Trend 2035 Sustainable 2035Source: Åkerman, J., Höjer, M., Berg Mårtensson, H. Sustainable Transport 2035 (forthcoming )Conclusions•Non -fossil liquid fuels will be 2-6 times more expensive than fossil fuels•Demand management will also be required for air travel and road traffic•Digital meetings can significantly reduce commuting by car and business travel by air•All transport modes need to pay fully for external effects (GHG -emissions, noise etc) andfull Value Added Tax•In particular , the substantial tax exemptions for air travel should be terminated