BSPC Annual Report For The BSPC On Integrated Maritime Policy V 1 7

Shipping in the Baltic Sea:Where We Stand and What Comes NextAnnual Report for the Baltic Sea Parliamentary Conferenceon Integrated Maritime Policy (2025)Mariehamn, June 202534YEARSBSPCThe BSPC Rapporteur on Integrated Maritime PolicyReport 2025for the 34th Baltic Sea Parliamentary Conference on Åland,© Mariehamn, June 2025Text: Jörgen PetterssonEditing: Bodo BahrLayout: produktionsbüro TINUSBaltic Sea Parliamentary ConferenceBodo BahrSecretary General+49 171 5512557bodo.bahr@bspcmail.netwww.bspc.netBSPC Secretariat Schlossgartenallee 1519061 Schwerin GermanyThe Baltic Sea Parliamentary Conference (BSPC) was established in 1991 as a forum for poli-tical dialogue between parliamentarians from the Baltic Sea Region. The BSPC aims to raiseawareness and opinion on issues of current political interest and relevance for the Baltic SeaRegion. It promotes and drives various initiatives and efforts to support the sustainable en-vironmental, social and economic development of the Baltic Sea Region. It strives to enhan-ce the visibility of the Baltic Sea Region and its issues in a broader European context. BSPCgathers parliamentarians from 10 national parliaments, 7 regional parliaments and 5 parlia-mentary organisations around the Baltic Sea. The BSPC thus constitutes a unique parlia-mentary bridge between the democratic EU- and non-EU countries of the Baltic Sea Regi-on. BSPC external interfaces include parliamentary, governmental, subregional and otherorganisations in the Baltic Sea Region and the Northern Dimension area, among themCBSS, HELCOM, the Northern Dimension Partnership in Health and Social Well-Being(NDPHS), the Baltic Sea Labour Forum (BSLF) and the Baltic Sea States Subregional Co-operation (BSSSC).The BSPC shall initiate and guide political activities in the region; support and strengthendemocratic institutions in the participating states; improve dialogue between governments,parliaments and civil society; strengthen the common identity of the Baltic Sea Region bymeans of close cooperation between national and regional parliaments based on equality,and initiate and guide political activities in the Baltic Sea Region, endowing them with ad-ditional democratic legitimacy and parliamentary authority.The political recommendations of the annual Parliamentary Conferences are expressed in aConference Resolution adopted by consensus by the Conference. The adopted Resolutionshall be submitted to the governments of the Baltic Sea Region, the CBSS and the EU anddisseminated to other relevant national, regional and local stakeholders in the Baltic Sea Re-gion and its neighbourhood.3ContentsA Time of Change, The Baltic Sea at a T urning Point ......................................................................... 41. Trade and Traffic: Busy Waters, Changing Flows............................................................................ 62. Maritime Security: Infrastructure Under Pressure......................................................................... 73.Digital and Green Transitions: Ports as Catalysts for Change....................................................... 84.Modal Shift: Advancing Integration Between Sea, Rail, and Road................................................ 95.New Fuels and the Energy Imperative: Powering the Green Transition....................................... 106.Looking Ahead: Navigating the Next Decade of Baltic Sea Shipping.......................................... 11In the short term (1–3 years), we can expect: ......................................................................................................................... 11In the long term (5–10 years), the transformation deepens:.................................................................................................. 11Conclusion:............................................................................................................................................................................. 12Recommendations for BSPC Policymakers ...................................................................................... 131. Put Security First ................................................................................................................................................................. 132. Make Sustainability the Standard....................................................................................................................................... 133. Think in Systems, Not Silos............................................................................................................................................... 134. Accelerate the Modal Shift.................................................................................................................................................. 145. Champion Digital Innovation ............................................................................................................................................ 14Executive Summary, DNV Future Report ......................................................................................... 15What This Means for the Baltic Sea Region...................................................................................... 17Final Thought ......................................................................................................................................................................... 17Key Findings........................................................................................................................................................................... 17From 2030 onwards, the dominant use of CCS will shift:.................................................................................................... 18T echnologies and Cost Trajectories ................................................................................................... 19Capture ................................................................................................................................................................................... 19Transport................................................................................................................................................................................. 19Storage..................................................................................................................................................................................... 20While low/zero-emission fuels are the primary focus in maritime decarbonization,onboard carbon capture offers a potential parallel track, especially for: ................................................................................. 20DNV outlines:........................................................................................................................................................................ 20Financing, Policy, and Market Signals.................................................................................................................................... 21Regional Dynamics................................................................................................................................................................. 21Long-Term Outlook and Challenges..................................................................................................................................... 22Conclusions for Baltic Sea Policy Makers ......................................................................................... 23Implications for Integrated Maritime Policy: ......................................................................................................................... 23Policy Recommendations:...................................................................................................................................................... 23Looking ahead, Baltic Sea shipping will be shaped by four main forces:.............................................................................. 234 A Time of Change, The Baltic Sea at a T urning PointA Time of Change, The Baltic Seaat a T urning PointThe Baltic Sea is many things: a vital economic artery, a testingground for green innovation, and now, more than ever, a strategicfrontier. With over 2.000 ships crisscrossing its waters at any givenmoment, this enclosed and ecologically sensitive sea is central tothe future of European trade, security and sustainability.Yet the region is not standing still. Beneath the surface and oftenout of public view, a quiet transformation is underway. T rade flowsare shifting. Digitalization is transforming the way ships and portsoperate. Energy demands are growing faster than infrastructure cankeep up. New fuels are emerging, but so are new risks, from shadowfleets to undersea sabotage.The choices made today by policymakers, port authorities, indust-ry leaders, and international institutions will shape the next decadeof Baltic Sea maritime life. Will we build a connected, green, andresilient shipping system, or will we fall into fragmentation, conge-stion, and vulnerability?Jörgen PetterssonPresident Ålands LagtingBSPC Rapporteur on IntegratedMaritime Policy5 A Time of Change, The Baltic Sea at a T urning PointThis report provides a structured overview of the key forces driving change, grouped into six thematic sec-tions:1. T rade and T raffic: How shifting cargo patterns and high-frequency ferry routes are changing therhythm of Baltic Sea logistics.2. Maritime Security: Why cable sabotage and unregulated tankers demand a new era of infrastructureprotection and shared vigilance.3. Digital and Green T ransitions: How ports are becoming laboratories for low-emission technologies,real-time data, and intelligent systems.4. Modal Shift: Why the EU’s call to move freight from roads to rail and sea is both urgent and uneven-ly implemented across the region.5. New Fuels and the Energy Imperative: Why Electrification and e-fuels are Only as Strong as the Pow-er Grids That Support Them.6. Looking Ahead: What the next 10 years might hold, from autonomous vessels to cross-border legalframeworks, and what needs to happen now.Each section is grounded in concrete examples, emerging trends, and actionable insight. Together, theypoint to one conclusion: the Baltic Sea is more than a shared body of water; it is a shared responsibility.To support regional cooperation, the report closes with five clear recommendations for BSPC policyma-kers. These are not abstract ideals but practical next steps to ensure that the Baltic Sea remains a model forsecure, sustainable, and intelligent maritime governance.The seas are busy, the stakes are rising, and the path forward is still ours to choose.6 1. Trade and Traffic: Busy Waters, Changing Flows1. Trade and Traffic:Busy Waters, Changing FlowsDespite heightened geopolitical tensions in the Baltic Sea region, overall cargo volumes have remained re-silient. However, the structure of trade is evolving, with significant implications for regional logistics andport infrastructure.One of the most consequential but less visible developments is Russia’s strategic expansion of its exportcapacity in the eastern Baltic Sea. New port facilities, including those at Vysotsky and the rapidly growingLugaport near Ust-Luga, are projected to handle up to 15 million tonnes of cargo annually by 2030. The-se investments are designed to reroute Russian exports away from third-party ports, thereby shifting tradeflows westward and altering the operational landscape for ports in Finland, Sweden, and the Baltic States.Policymakers should anticipate long-term adjustments in cargo volumes, routes, and economic depen-dencies throughout the region.On the passenger side, maritime mobility has bounced back strongly post-pandemic. High-frequencyferry connections, most notably between Helsinki and Tallinn, have re-emerged as vital arteries of bothtourism and freight transport. These routes support a hybrid model of movement, carrying not only mil-lions of passengers annually but also significant volumes of roll-on/roll-off cargo. In this way, passengershipping plays a dual role: facilitating human connectivity and supporting just-in-time logistics chains.Yet raw traffic numbers alone do not capture the full complexity of regional maritime dynamics. How ves-sels operate, how efficiently ports adapt, and how resilient logistics systems prove to be under pressure areequally decisive in shaping the future of maritime activity in the Baltic Sea.7 2. Maritime Security: Infrastructure Under Pressure2. Maritime Security:Infrastructure Under PressureIn 2024, the Baltic Sea was shaken by a sobering reminder of its strategic vulnerabilities. T wo separate dis-ruptions to critical undersea infrastructure, including the Estlink 2 electricity interconnector betweenFinland and Estonia, raised alarms throughout the region. Investigations traced the likely cause to theRussian-flagged oil tanker Eagle S, suspected of having dragged its anchor across the seabed, damagingboth communication and energy cables. While the incident’s intent remains unclear, the implications arenot: essential maritime infrastructure is exposed, and state-linked actors may be willing to take high-sta-kes risks.Finnish authorities have since detained several crew members from Eagle S, with legal proceedings expec-ted later in 2025. The case highlights growing concerns about the protection of subsea networks in an eraof hybrid threats and heightened geopolitical tension.In response, NATO launched Operation Baltic Sentry in January 2025, a dedicated mission aimed at en-hancing maritime domain awareness and deterring malicious activity. The initiative includes regular navalpatrols, aerial surveillance with unmanned systems, and the deployment of sub-sea sensor networks. Whatwas once considered a cooperative, low-risk maritime zone must now be actively defended, a reality thatreshapes both security policy and marine governance across the region.Simultaneously, the presence of Russia’s so-called “shadow fleet” - a group of oil tankers operating underobscure ownership and frequently lacking proper insurance - continues to raise serious environmental andnavigational concerns. These vessels, often transporting sanctioned crude oil, transit through the narrowDanish Straits and enter the Baltic Sea with minimal oversight. In response, the European Union has in-troduced stricter enforcement measures, including port entry restrictions and enhanced due diligence re-quirements. These efforts aim to mitigate risks from uninsured or non-compliant shipping, but enforce-ment remains a shared challenge for all Baltic Sea littoral states.8 3. Digital and Green Transitions: Ports as Catalysts for Change3. Digital and Green Transitions:Ports as Catalysts for ChangeSustainability in maritime T ransport is no longer an aspirational goal; it is a strategic imperative. Portsacross the Baltic Sea region are emerging as testbeds for innovation, combining environmental ambitionwith digital transformation.In Sweden and Finland, ports such as Gävle and Rauma are pioneering the use of Just-In-Time arrival sys-tems, enabling ships to optimize their speed during transit and minimize idle time at anchor. By synchro-nizing vessel arrivals with berth availability in real-time, these systems significantly reduce fuel consump-tion and associated emissions by as much as 20 % in some cases. This is a concrete example of how ope-rational efficiency directly contributes to environmental performance.Riga Port in Latvia offers another glimpse into the future. Its deployment of a dedicated 5G network hastransformed it into a hub for high-tech maritime applications, from real-time monitoring of underwaterdrones to remotely controlled cargo handling equipment. What once sounded like science fiction is nowroutine practice, demonstrating the potential of “smart ports” to improve both safety and sustainability.Broader European frameworks increasingly support these local innovations. Among the most promisingis the development of “digital twins”, dynamic, virtual replicas of physical port environments. These toolsintegrate data from sensors, weather forecasts, and traffic models to simulate port operations under vari-ous scenarios. They empower authorities to make better-informed decisions, optimize logistics chains,and reduce environmental impacts. For policymakers, investing in these technologies means future-proo-fing not only individual ports but also the entire maritime ecosystem of the Baltic Sea.9 4. Modal Shift: Advancing Integration Between Sea, Rail, and Road4. Modal Shift:Advancing Integration Between Sea, Rail, and RoadA central pillar of the European Green Deal is the concept of modal shift, which involves reducing relian-ce on road transport by increasing cargo movement via sea and rail. In theory, the logic is straightforward.In practice, the transformation is complex and uneven across the Baltic Sea region.Progress is visible but gradual. Ferry operators are increasingly transporting freight alongside passengers,particularly on high-frequency routes that serve both short-sea shipping and regional logistics needs. Inparallel, several new intermodal terminals are being developed to accommodate both RoRo traffic (roll-on/roll-off trucks) and rail freight, aiming to streamline cargo transfers across modes of T ransportation.However, significant gaps remain. Many ports, especially in the eastern and southern Baltic Sea, still lackdirect rail connections or sufficient infrastructure to support high-volume intermodal operations. This li-mits the potential efficiency and environmental benefits of the modal shift. It also weakens the resilienceof supply chains in times of crisis or disruption.Looking ahead, sustained investment in rail-port integration, digital coordination platforms, and logisticshubs will be critical. Well-designed intermodal terminals allow containers and trailers to move seamlesslybetween vessels, trains, and trucks, reducing dwell times, emissions, and road congestion.For policymakers, the imperative is clear: support targeted infrastructure upgrades, incentivize low-emis-sion transportation systems, and harmonize regulatory frameworks across borders. If implemented effec-tively, the modal shift offers a high-impact pathway to decarbonize freight transport while enhancing re-gional connectivity and economic competitiveness.10 5. New Fuels and the Energy Imperative: Powering the Green Transition5. New Fuels and the Energy Imperative:Powering the Green TransitionOne of the most transformative shifts in Baltic Sea shipping is happening out of sight, below deck, in theengine rooms. The region is at the forefront of alternative fuel adoption, with several methanol-poweredvessels already in service and multiple ferry operators trialling fully electric ships on shorter routes. Theseinnovations represent a critical step toward maritime decarbonization. But they all depend on one thing:access to clean, reliable energy.The key question is no longer just what fuels the ships of the future but how that energy will be deliveredand whether supply can keep pace with demand.At present, the answer is sobering: not yet. Shore power systems, which allow vessels to plug into the localgrid while at berth, are expanding but remain limited. As more ships transition to electric or hybrid pro-pulsion and shore power becomes the regulatory norm, electricity demand in ports is expected to surge.Unfortunately, most port-area electrical grids were not designed to handle such a high load. Without stra-tegic upgrades, many ports risk becoming bottlenecks rather than enablers of the green transition.This makes maritime energy demand not just a port issue but a national infrastructure challenge. Gover-nments must now integrate the energy needs of the marine sector into broader planning for offshorewind, smart grid deployment, and grid-scale energy storage. Ports should be recognized as critical energynodes, requiring both investment and coordination across T ransport and energy ministries.For policymakers, the message is clear: green shipping cannot succeed without green power. Aligning ma-ritime decarbonization with national energy strategies is essential to ensure that the Baltic Sea remains aleader in sustainable shipping.11 6. Looking Ahead: Navigating the Next Decade of Baltic Sea Shipping6. Looking Ahead:Navigating the Next Decade of Baltic Sea ShippingA convergence of geopolitical realities, technological innovation, and climate imperatives will shape themaritime future of the Baltic Sea. Decision-makers across the region must prepare for a shippinglandscape that will look very different by the end of this decade.In the short term (1–3 years), we can expect:Sustained enforcement of sanctions and closer monitoring of shadow fleet operations, particularly in theDanish Straits and Gulf of Finland.Rapid digitalization of port and vessel operations, including expanded systems for real-time emission tra-cking and predictive maintenance.The development of green shipping corridors between key ports, such as Stockholm-Helsinki or Gdy-nia-Rostock, is supported by joint climate targets and harmonized infrastructure.An acceleration of pilot projects focused on clean fuels, electric propulsion, and AI-supported logisticschains, helping bridge the gap between innovation and scale-up.In the long term (5–10 years), the transformation deepens:Maritime AI and autonomous vessels are likely to transition from testbeds to mainstream applications,particularly in coastal freight and ferry services.Infrastructure security will be approached holistically through joint planning between NATO, EU insti-tutions, and port authorities, recognizing ports as strategic assets.E-fuels (such as green methanol or ammonia) and battery-electric ships will gain widespread adoption,enabled by investments in bunkering, charging, and grid capacity.12 6. Looking Ahead: Navigating the Next Decade of Baltic Sea ShippingSeamless sea-rail integration will become a reality at major ports, optimizing logistics flows while reducingemissions and congestion.Stronger, more binding legal frameworks will emerge to govern shared waters, address maritime incidents,and formalize joint responsibilities in environmental protection and security.Conclusion:The choices made today will determine whether the Baltic Sea becomes a global model for resilient, green,and secure maritime T ransport or a fragmented zone of missed opportunities. Regional cooperation, stra-tegic investment, and smart regulation will be essential in steering this transition toward a shared and sus-tainable future.13 Recommendations for BSPC PolicymakersRecommendations for BSPC PolicymakersTo secure a resilient, sustainable, and competitive maritime future for the Baltic Sea region, policymakersshould prioritize the following five actions:1. Put Security FirstEstablish formal mechanisms for regional coordination on maritime infrastructure protection, includingshared protocols for monitoring and defending undersea cables, port assets, and digital systems. Considerintegrating port-level risk management into NATO and EU security planning and operations.2. Make Sustainability the StandardMove beyond voluntary pilot projects by providing regulatory clarity and harmonized standards for greenshipping corridors. Use joint public-private frameworks to support decarbonization targets, infrastructureinvestment, and port readiness across borders.3. Think in Systems, Not SilosRecognize that maritime energy demand is a national issue. Integrate the electricity and fuel needs ofports and vessels into broader energy strategies, including plans for offshore wind, smart grids, and bat-tery storage. Prioritize future-proofing port grids.14 Recommendations for BSPC Policymakers4. Accelerate the Modal ShiftSupport the transition from road to sea and rail through targeted funding for intermodal terminals, espe-cially in underserved regions. Provide economic incentives for clean ferry-based freight and ensure align-ment with EU transport and climate goals.5. Champion Digital InnovationPosition the 13 Sea as a global testbed for “smart port” ecosystems. Promote the development and deplo-yment of digital twins and advanced data systems to improve efficiency, reduce emissions, and build resi-lience. Encourage cross-border data sharing and joint innovation programs.These recommendations are not abstract aspirations; they are practical steps toward a shared future inwhich the Baltic Sea region leads the world in green, secure, and smart maritime T ransport.Sources and InspirationNATO and EU mission briefings (Baltic Sentry).Reuters, AP News, Financial Times reporting (Russian ports, shadow fleet).EfficientFlow & Digital T win EU projects.Baltic Ports Organization & HELCOM data.EMSA & DNV shipping decarbonization frameworks.15 Executive Summary, DNV Future ReportExecutive Summary, DNV Future ReportDNV’s 2025 forecast on Carbon Capture and Storage (CCS) presents a compelling, data-rich outlook onone of the most critical climate mitigation tools of our time. It positions CCS not as a silver bullet but asa necessary complement to energy efficiency and renewable energy, especially for hard-to-abate sectors.From today’s limited deployment, CCS is forecast to grow more than 30-fold by 2050, yet still fall farshort of what is required for a net-zero world.A new global forecast from classification society DNV paints a picture that is both encouraging and sobe-ring. Summary of DNV Energy T ransition Outlook CCS (Carbon Capture and Storage) Outlook to2050.Over the past year, the Baltic Sea has remained a strategically vital yet increasingly complex maritime are-na. Key trends include:• Intensified cargo flows from East to West.• Security threats to undersea infrastructure.• Technological leaps in port operations and emissions reduction.• Tightened sanctions on Russia’s “shadow fleet”.• Growing focus on green fuels, digital twins, and modal shift.• Capturing the Future, But Not Fast EnoughAs the world races to reduce emissions, one thing is becoming increasingly clear: we won’t get to net zeroby simply switching to renewables and hoping for the best. We’ll need to capture carbon, too, especiallyin those hard-to-reach sectors where emissions are deeply embedded in industrial processes. That’s whereCarbon Capture and Storage, or CCS, comes in.16 Executive Summary, DNV Future ReportThe good news is that CCS is finally in motion. After years of pilot projects and political hesitation, theworld is entering what DNV refers to as a turning point. Over the next five years, the amount of CO2captured and stored is expected to quadruple. By 2050, the industry could grow more than thirty-foldfrom today’s levels.The less encouraging news is that, despite this growth, we will still be far from where we need to be. Ac-cording to DNV’s forecast, CCS will capture only 6% of global CO2 emissions by mid-century, which iswell below the scale required to keep climate goals within reach.Still, there is no turning back. CCS is no longer a niche concept reserved for academic papers, and oil in-dustry think tanks. It’s a real, growing part of the global energy transition. And it’s about more than fossilfuels. The real growth will come from sectors like steel, cement, and shipping—the industrial giants whe-re electrification alone will not suffice.Key Takeaways:• CCS is growing rapidly, especially in Europe and North America, and is expected to becomemainstream in industrial decarbonization.• By 2050, the world may be capturing and storing 1,3 billion tonnes of CO2 per year. That’s agiant leap but only a sixth of what’s needed for a net-zero scenario.• The manufacturing sector is expected to dominate CCS use after 2030, including applications incement, chemicals, and steel.• Carbon dioxide removal (CDR), including BECCS and direct air capture, is expected to accountfor a quarter of all captured emissions by 2050.• Onboard CCS for ships could emerge by the 2040s, especially for deep-sea T ransport where low-carbon fuels are harder to use.• The main barrier isn’t the technology; it’s policy. Unclear incentives and regulatory delays remainthe biggest threats to growth.17 What This Means for the Baltic Sea RegionWhat This Means for the Baltic Sea RegionFor countries around the Baltic Sea, CCS is not just a global issue; it’s a regional opportunity. Europe ison track to become one of the world’s CCS leaders, with Norway, Denmark, and the Netherlands alrea-dy building carbon storage sites under the seabed. Baltic Sea ports, industries, and shipowners now havethe opportunity to connect with that infrastructure.If the region invests wisely in capture hubs, CO2 transport ships, and smart policy, we can lead not onlyin emissions reduction but also in building a new carbon economy.Final ThoughtCarbon capture may not be the future we dreamed of. It’s complex, expensive, and politically messy. Butin a world where climate goals can no longer wait for perfection, CCS is a pragmatic tool for a cleaner fu-ture. The challenge now is not to prove that it works but to make it work faster, smarter, and at the scalethe planet demands.Key Findings• The T urning Point Has Arrived• Global CCS capacity is currently 41 Mt CO2/year.• By 2030, this is expected to grow to 270 Mt CO2/year, a quadrupling in just five years.• By 2050, the total captured and stored CO2 is projected to reach 1.3 Gt CO2 per Year.• CCS will cover only 6% of global CO2 emissions in 2050, which is insufficient for achieving netzero but essential for bridging the gap.• · Hard-to-Abate Sectors Take the Lead18 Final ThoughtFrom 2030 onwards, the dominant use of CCS will shift:• Manufacturing (e.g., cement, steel, chemicals) is expected to account for 41 % of capturedemissions by mid-century.• In Europe, the focus will be on cement and chemicals; in North America and the Middle East,hydrogen and ammonia production will be the primary focus.• CCS in maritime shipping, particularly onboard capture, is expected to enter practical use by the2040s.• Carbon Dioxide Removal (CDR) Becomes Key• CDR technologies, such as BECCS (bioenergy with carbon dioxide removal) and DAC (direct aircapture), are expected to make up 25 % of the total CCS volume by 2050.• 330 Mt CO2/year will be removed via CDR by mid-century.• DAC will remain costly (USD 350/tCO2) but will be increasingly supported by voluntary carbonmarkets.19 T echnologies and Cost TrajectoriesT echnologies and Cost TrajectoriesCapture• Amine-based post-combustion remains the most mature capture method.• Other methods include pre-combustion, oxy-combustion, adsorption, membrane separation, andcryogenic processes.• Capture costs range from USD 30 to USD 120/tCO2, depending on gas composition, scale, andtechnology.• Capture carries the largest share of total CCS cost, especially when liquefaction is required forT ransport.Transport• CO2 is transported via pipelines, ships, trains, or trucks.• Pipelines are cost-effective for significant, nearby sources; ships are more flexible and ideal forlong-range or maritime deployment.• Shipping networks, such as Northern Lights in Norway, represent the future for regional CCSclusters.20 T echnologies and Cost TrajectoriesStorage• Depleted oil and gas fields (cheaper, well-characterized)• Deep saline aquifers (higher capacity, lower leakage risk)• Storage costs range from USD 3 to USD 35/tCO2, with onshore costs being cheaper than thoseoffshore.• Monitoring and long-term integrity are key challenges, particularly for legacy well systems.• Onboard CCS and Maritime ImplicationsWhile low/zero-emission fuels are the primary focus in maritimedecarbonization, onboard carbon capture offers a potential parallel track,especially for:• Existing vessels with long remaining lifespans.• Hard-to-electrify deep-sea shipping segments.• Regions lack affordable green fuels.DNV outlines:• Capture rates of 70 % or more are technically feasible.• Economic viability depends on fuel penalties, storage costs, and carbon price incentives.• Integration into the IMO and EU regulatory frameworks is underway; the EU ETS alreadyrecognizes onboard capture.21 T echnologies and Cost TrajectoriesFinancing, Policy, and Market Signals• DNV forecasts USD 700 billion in CCS investments by 2050, and more is needed to achieve netzero.• CCS growth is limited not by technology but by policy uncertainty and lack of stable carbonpricing.• Carbon markets, compliance regimes, and cluster-based infrastructure (e.g., CO2 hubs) are criticalfor scaling.• Stronger policy signals in Europe are projected to allow it to surpass North America in CCSdeployment by the 2030s.Regional Dynamics• Europe: Focused on industrial decarbonization, offshore saline aquifers, and shipping-basedT ransport.• North America currently leads in volume, primarily through natural gas processing and EOR.• China: Coal-fired power remains a primary CCS application through 2050.• Middle East: Emergent CCS for ammonia and hydrogen.• Asia Pacific: Developing long-distance CO2 shipping links (e.g., from Japan to Australia/Malaysia).22 T echnologies and Cost TrajectoriesLong-T erm Outlook and Challenges• CCS will grow significantly, but it will not reach the scale required for 1.5°C or even 2°Cpathways without a policy overhaul.• The energy demands of CCS remain high, and clean energy sources must be utilised to ensureactual reductions in emissions.• Public opposition and legal and regulatory barriers are real concerns, especially in denselypopulated Europe.• Clusters, modularization, and digital monitoring tools (e.g., for purity and leak detection) willimprove efficiency and safety.23 Conclusions for Baltic Sea Policy MakersConclusions for Baltic Sea Policy MakersImplications for Integrated Maritime Policy:• CCS, including onboard capture, is likely to become part of the Baltic Sea decarbonizationstrategy, particularly for the heavy industry and shipping sectors.• Regional cooperation is needed to develop shared transport and storage infrastructure (CO2 ports,pipeline corridors, injection hubs).• Baltic Sea ports can play a pioneering role by preparing for CO2 handling capacity and aligningwith initiatives such as Northern Lights and C4.Policy Recommendations:• Support incentives for CCS deployment in shipping and manufacturing.• Invest in regional CO2 hubs and liquefaction capacity at key Baltic Sea ports.• Integrate CCS infrastructure into TEN-T and EU climate policy.• Include onboard capture as a compliance tool within the EU ETS and FuelEU Maritime.• Ensure alignment with offshore energy strategies, as both wind and CCS will increasingly share seabed resources.Looking ahead, Baltic Sea shipping will be shaped by four main forces:• Sustainability mandates.• Geopolitical uncertainty.• Energy transitions.• Digital innovation.Baltic Sea Parliamentary Conferencewww.bspc.netBSPC SecretariatSchlossgartenallee 1519061 SchwerinGermany