Bonsdorff presentation at 19th BSPC

8/31/10CLIMATE – WEATHER:The difference between climate and weather is a measure of time.Weather is the mix of events that happen each day in ouratmosphere including temperature, rainfall and humidity.Climate controls the weather at any given site. Climate is theaverage weather pattern in a place over many years.Climate is changing because the Earth is warming.19th Baltic Sea Parliamentary Conference, Mariehamn, 30 August 2010BIODIVERSITY (structural – functional; goods and services): Global warming – a rapidly escalating process:Biodiversity is the variation of life forms within a given habitat, ecosystem, or on theentire Earth. It is often used as a measure of ecosystem-health.18/31/10Melting of the Arctic Polar Icecap: Where does this leave the Baltic Sea?a significant change and driver of further changeNot only negative effects; some species (e.g. Arctic cod) may benefitThe Baltic Sea is internationallyknown to be in a poor state:HarmfulNa ol tg Ia Nl b Dlo Eo Pm EsNDENTofClimateChange!!... but: what do we know, and is it enough?!Dead bottoms28/31/10Putting things into perspective:What are we aiming at; there is no ’going back’ in time or Temperature change in the Baltic Sea drainage area since 1870:ecological succession!(www.gks.de)Status of BIODIVERSITY in the Baltic Sea (in relation to expected):Climate change: severe effects on the Baltic Sea ecosystem2010: 2100:CLIMATE CHANGEEutrophication-‐20 to -‐100 daysOverfishing+3Anoxia/hypoxiaHabitat-loss,Exotic species ?? T°C, S°/°°, pH, O2Sea-level riseHarmful substances,Poten5al warming of the Dura5on of ice cover: Maritime trafficsea 2000-‐2100 1961-‐90 by 2100 Biodiversity &Function?Food webs?Increased precipitation, reduced salinity = ecological problems!(Swedish EPA, 2005)38/31/10What can be done to counteract the effects of climatechange on Baltic Sea biodiversity? Primary production will increase, and stronger and more frequentcyanobacterial and harmful algal blooms will follow.It will be hard (if not impossible) to counteract climate change, andthus it is more crucial than ever to do what we can to counteract the The cold-water species are at risk, and will be replaced with species thatnegative effects of the other stressors in the system today! can tolerate low salinity and warmer water, i.e. a different marineecosystem than the one we know today.EUTROPHICATION will get worse if not combatted now (harmfulalgal blooms, hypoxia/anoxia), the impact of NON-NATIVE SPECIES Non-native invasive (’exotic’) species will become more dominant thanmay grow out of our hands if maritime transport is not controlled, today, increasing risks for mass-occurrences of harmful organisms (algae,FISHERIES will collapse unless fish-stocks are repaired, and the mikro-organisms, zooplankton, medusae, etc).effects of HARMFUL SUBSTANCES are increased by increasingtemperature. The Baltic Sea ’dead zone’ can be expected to further increase in areaand volume, with dire consequences for fisheries. Ecosystem-collapse.HABITAT-CHANGE will increase, i.e. marine protected areas areneeded, and BIODIVERSITY and ECOSYSTEM-FUNCTIONING Many cold-water fish species (cod, salmon, herring, whitefish) may moremust be considered a top-priority. or less disappear, and species such as roach, bream, sticklebacks etcmay increase. Baltic Sea fisheries may be completely different than today.Pathway to a healthier marine ecosystem based on (1): Pathway to a healthier marine ecosystem based on (2):• Basic knowledge • Threats• Oceanography • Governance & Management• Ecology • Action• Climate • Monitoring48/31/10We cannot hide our heads in the sand and pretend theproblem will go away: There is no ”Silver Bullet” !Climate change-effects cannot be treated separately from other factors! Single engineering-solutions are not the way to go:we need science in support of management !Thank you for listening!5