Salonius-Pasternak presentation at 19th BSPC

Speaking notes for Baltic Sea Parliamentary Conference, Mariehamn, Åland Islands, FinlandTopic: Baltic Sea Region as an Area of Peace and SecurityCharly Salonius-Pasternak (Mostly as presented)Thank you to Lagtinget for the invitation to participate in this 19th Baltic Sea Parliamentary Conference, and for the opportunity to finally make my way to Åland. At the conference you’ve discussed many things that impact societal security: climate change, economic cooperation, maritime cooperation etc. These are all critically important areas of both practical cooperation and inspiration in the Baltic Sea Region.However, my invitation asked me to speak briefly about the Baltic Sea as an Area of Peace and Security – which for me translated into peace and war – or hard security. Obviously, questions of war are not at the top of the Baltic priority list, but looking at them can be instructive regarding how to address some other common concerns. The challenge is what to say that you, professionals who follow this every day, would not already know. Well, I like frameworks, they help to place what seem like independent pieces of information or facts into a greater whole – and provided you’re flexible in how you use them, also allow for changes in what you are looking at.The framework I chose is the idea of Security Communities (Karl Deutsch, 1957, Northern Atlantic, Scandinavian, Nordic). In short, Security Communities being countries between which war as a way to solve inter-societal problems has become unthinkable. Deutsch divided these security communities into two types: Amalgamated and Pluralistic (Amalgamated: 13 states into USA, Pluralistic: USA & Canada, or Nordics). More recently scholars such as Emanuel Adler and Michael Barnett attempted to place security communities along a spectrum, from Nascent security communities (which have the basics) to Mature ones (which include some collective security and/or supranational links...).The obvious question is: IS THERE A BALTIC SEA SECURITY COMMUNITY? Many researchers have sought to answer this question . I’ll start my answer by noting the following:1) Currently there are three plus two (3+2) Security Communities in the Baltic Sea Area: Nordics, Baltic 3, and what I call the “Hansa Core” Germany & Poland. In addition to these three, there is what I consider a unique ‘security community’ – Åland, and the final one, due to EU and NATO jointly, one than encompasses all of these security communities and times them to eachother.2) Despite the significant changes that have taken place in the Baltic Sea Area in the past 20 years – with EU and NATO memberships being the most significant from a security perspective – we’ve had no wars. I’d say even nothing even close to it...perhaps there really is something peculiarly stabilizing about the Baltic Sea? ...obviously cyber attacks of the past few years underline the changing notions of war here.3) Overall cooperation in the Baltic Sea Area has increased, with increased stability, as all but one Baltic Sea country has joined either EU or NATO, or both.With all of this, for the first time in at least a century (if Germany or Russia) perhaps two (if Sweden), we may be reaching a point where the Baltic Sea has a Hegemon. This Hegemon is either the EU (an internal lake) or NATO (which “controls the Baltic”). By all appearances, this would suggest that the region is a fairly mature security community...But, is it really like this?Russian military exercises during the past year were predicated on the need to launch amphibious operations against a small state in the Baltic Sea. Joint US/NATO exercises over the past 18 months have as a whole clearly been about signaling NATO’s readiness and ability to defend and protect Latvia, Lithuania and Estonia from Russian aggression. The Finnish Defence Forces posture also signals a fundamental wariness...could go on, but you get the point.So, the tentative answer is that taken as a whole there is no security community in the Baltic Sea Area. But, all of the involved actors are slowly feeling their way forwards, towards one.CAN THIS CHANGE? (YES) WILL IT? IF SO, WHY? When/How long will it take?The answer lies in another question: HOW WERE THE SECURITY COMMUNITIES THAT EXIST CREATED?Increase interdependence (economic and trade) and History (common myths and experiences) have provided much of the glue. (Plus TIME). However, the basic reason is that a FUNDAMENTAL SHIFT IN HOW ‘THE OTHER’ IS VIEWED OCCURED. This shift occurred both in the minds of the political elites and leaders and in the minds of the populations. N.B. This shift is so fundamental that interests cannot supersede them. (remember for later).EU consolidation and NATO expansion means that by 2020 security wise there will effectively be two actors in the Baltic Sea Area: the EU/NATO security community and Russia.I say this because it is obvious that Russia has not made this fundamental shift, and it is unlikely that it will in the coming decade(s)...This means that for Finland and the Baltic 3, the Baltic Sea Area is not and will not in the coming decade(s) be a security community. Unfortunately, there is little these four countries can do about this, because changes are dependent on internal changes and dynamics in Russia. We should be honest, the depth of changes that are would be required take a long time to take root and grow...has in each country represented here. For others, Sweden, Denmark, and the Hansa Core (Germany and Poland), well, there almost is a security community in the Baltic Sea.The question is, DOES IT MATTER?The answer is, YES, IT DOES MATTER, on national levels, in terms of Baltic Sea Region cooperation and more broadly:National level: we must expend money and resources on military and other hard security related matters, that could be used for other purposes.Regionally: The same dynamics that are responsible for the lack of a Baltic Sea Region security community are visible and affect other spheres and issues, but obviously not all cooperation.More Broadly: It tears at NATO, but in particular the EU, that its members which share borders around the Baltic, have such different feelings of security around the same sea, especially when ultimately the Baltic Sea must be the busiest sea in the world and the safest region in the world... thanks in part to the work done by all of you sitting here. Thank you.