Haapala presentation at 26 BSPC

ONE ESTIMATE ON GLOBAL WARMINGDRIVER OF THE BALTIC SEA RESEARCHUNDERSTAND VARIABILITY AND CHANGE OF ECOSYSTEMWhat is the link between the global scale change andlocal characteristics ?1. Global to North-Atlantic / Eurasian scale- controlled by the global climate system- very strong feedback between scales2. Baltic Sea scale- climate variability very much controlled by theatmospheric circulation- some feedback to large scale3. Basin scale- atmospheric forcing is modified by the localcharacteristics : shape of the basin, interactionbetween the sub basins, river runoff etc.4. Response of the ecosystem- depends very much on the basin scalecharacteristics, even smaller sub-basin scale changescould be important.- dowscaling from global to the basin scale has beenactively studied during the last 10+ years, butcomparable little is know on the impact of CC on localscale.LINK BETWEEN SCALESWarmer summers ? Definetely yes, large regional differencesMore algea bloom ?Warmer winters ?Less snow and ice ?More storms ?More waves ?More floods ?Less salt ?Less cod ?WHAT HAPPENS FOR THE BALTIC SEA REGION ?ANSWERS BY THE REGIONAL MODELSWarmer summers ? Definetely yes, large regional differencesMore algea bloom ? Yes, if nutrient loads remain sameWarmer winters ?Less snow and ice ?More storms ?More waves ?More floods ?Less salt ?Less cod ?WHAT HAPPENS FOR THE BALTIC SEA REGION ?ANSWERS BY THE REGIONAL MODELSWarmer summers ? Definetely yes, large regional differencesMore algea bloom ? Yes, if nutrient loads remain sameWarmer winters ? Yes, change larger than summerLess snow and ice ? Sea ice has already reduced much,inter-annual variability large, but trend continuesMore storms ?More waves ?More floods ?Less salt ?Less cod ?WHAT HAPPENS FOR THE BALTIC SEA REGION ?ANSWERS BY THE REGIONAL MODELSWarmer summers ? Definetely yes, large regional differencesMore algea bloom ? Yes, if nutrient loads remain sameWarmer winters ? Yes, change larger than summerLess snow and ice ? Sea ice has already reduced much,inter-annual variability large, but trend continuesMore storms ? This in very uncertainMore waves ? In the Northern Baltic yes, because disppearance of iceMore floods ? Yes, because of global sea level riseLess salt ?Less cod ?WHAT HAPPENS FOR THE BALTIC SEA REGION ?ANSWERS BY THE REGIONAL MODELSWHAT HAPPENS FOR THE BALTIC SEA REGION ?ANSWERS BY THE REGIONAL MODELSWarmer summers ? Definetely yes, large regional differencesMore algea bloom ? Yes, if nutrient loads remain sameWarmer winters ? Yes, change larger than summerLess snow and ice ? Sea ice has already reduced much,inter-annual variability large, but trend continuesMore storms ? This in very uncertainMore waves ? In the Northern Baltic yes, because disppearance of iceMore floods ? Yes, because of global sea level riseLess salt ? Yes, Baltic will become fresher, but how much ?Less cod ? Difficult to say, but distribution of fishes depends on salinityNEED MORE INFORMATION ?