Kaczmarczyk Migration From Ukraine BSPC

Slide 1:Migration from Ukraine to Poland Past and present Paweł Kaczmarczyk Centre of Migration Research University of WarsawMeeting of the Baltic Sea Parliamentary ConferenceWednesday, 19th April 20221Slide 2:What I will talk about...Migration from Poland to UkraineContextProcessOutlook2Slide 3:First residence permits issued in the EU countries, 2008-2018Context: Poland as a New Immigrant Destination?Source: EUROSTATKey drivers:Supply side – war in the Eastern part of Ukraine migration pressureDemand side – labour market needs and the role of „simplified procedure”Slide 4:Immigrants residing in Poland (18 years and older, 2016 as for end of Dec.)Context: Poland as a New Immigrant DestinationSource: CSO 2018744 thousandMales (67%)Productive age (97%)Ukrainians (61%)2015: 284 thousand2016: 455 thousand70% up to 12 months36% with tertiary educationWarsaw (22%)End of 2019: 2.2 milion of immigrants (CSO 2020)End of 2020: 5-7% decline (MAC)Slide 5:5Work permits | Declaration of hiring a foreigner | Seasonal work permitFor how long? | Specified period, up to 3 years, it can be prolonge | Up to 6 months within 12 months (24 months) | Up to 9 months within calendar year, it can be prolonged in particular circumstancesSector limitations? | All sectors excluding those covered by seasonal work permit | All sectors excluding those covered by seasonal work permit | Yes, selected sectors listed in ministry ordinance: agriculture and (in limited scope) hotels and cateringTerritorial limitations? | No | Yes (citizens of Ukraine, Russia, Belarus, Moldova, Armenia and Georgia; possibility to add other countries as target group of the instrument) | No, but there are preferences for citizens of selected 6 countries (no labour market test, entry to the register of seasonal work for 3 years)Cost of obtaining | 50 / 100 / 200 PLN | 30 PLN | 30 PLNBody responsible for issuance or acceptance | Regional governor (wojewoda) | Local labour office | Local governor (local labour office)Obligation of reporting to the office | YES | YES | YESLabour market test | YES (many exemptions from the obligation) | NO | YES (possibility of expemtping from the obligation nationals of 6 countries covered by declaration procedure)Source: Szulecka 2018Context: legal paths to employment in PolandSlide 6:6Source: Wiatrów 2022Context: labour immigration to PolandMain forms of employment in Poland, 2018-2021Seasonal patterns of employment, 2018-2021Ukraine:Declarations: 88%Work permits: 71%Seasonal work permits: 98%Slide 7:7Source: Górny & Śleszyński 2019Context: labour immigration to PolandSlide 8:Context: attitudes towards immigrants - immigration as a threat?Source: Own elaboration based on the ESS data8Conclusions:Drop in negative assessment of immigration since 2016 (exception: Germany role of refugee / migration crisis?)In most cases symbolic (cultural) threat not as strong as an economic one„Outliers”: IT, ES, plus CEE (CZ, HU, SK)Slide 9:Context: attitudes towards immigrants - hostility towards newcomersSource: Own elaboration based on the ESS dataConclusions cont.:Different trends in hostility towards newcomers in various parts of the EU particularly HU, CZ, PL, SK, ITGermany as a very interesting case relatively high acceptance despite enourmous intake of immigrants9Slide 10:How to explain differences in hostility towards newcomers?Source: Own elaboration based on the ESS dataPoland – key origin countries (CSO 2018):Ukraine (450 thous.)EU countries (50 thous.)Belarus (21 thous.)Germany – key origin countries (OECD 2019):Poland (13%)Turkey (10%)Russia (8%)(new flows: RO, PL, BG)Italy – key origin countries (OECD 2019):Romania (17%)Albania (8%)Morocco (7%)(new flows: RO, NI, MO)10Slide 11:How to explain differences in attitudes towards immigrants? (the case of Poland)Source: Own elaboration based on the ESS data11Slide 12:Context: situation on the BY-PL borderBasic facts:July 2021 – Eastern Border Route 3000 persons / monthAugust 2021 – persons trapped at the BY-PL border (GrupaGranica == Border Group)August 2021 act legalising expulsions (on the PL side) (Act on Foreigners amended in Sep 2021); monitoring startsSeptember 2021 State of Emergency introduced (around 200 localities)November 2021 act on construction of border security measures (fence)November (8th) 2021 3000 persons directed by BY services to the border; border crossing’s attempts and escalation; relocationAround 30 thous. attempts to cross the border „illegally” (till end of Nov) (BG)in the period 1.01-15.11.2021 the Border Guard received 3.6 thous. applications concerning 6.2 thous. personsUnknown no. of push-backsOver 5 thous. people asked for assistance (BorderGroup)Over 9 thous. people reached DEMigration crisis?12Slide 13:Process: what happened after February 202413Source: OCHA 2022; UNHCR 2022Slide 14:Process: what happened after February 202414Source: Kubisiak 2022Slide 15:Process: what happened after February 202415Source: Kubisiak 2022Warsaw (as for the end of March):no. of persons who arrived to Warsaw: 575 thous.no. of persons staying in Warsaw: 300 thous.no. of persons with ID alloted: 33 thous.no. of persons in care facilities: 246 thous.no. of kids in education: 13 thous.Source: Warsaw City CouncilEarly registration data:PESEL: 927 thousand (14.04)<18 y.o. 48.3%women 44.7%65+ 3.5%Employed > 60 thous. (females: 76%)Source: Kubisiak 2022Slide 16:OutlookKey unknownsWhen and how the war will end?What will be the economic / political / social situation in Ukraine?What will be the future inflow and what will happen with people who have left the war zone so far?Early expectations and scenariosStarting point (April 2022): 2.85 mio (1.35 + 1.5 mio); F (18-65): 40%; children: 26%; elderly: 0.3%Three main scenarios:I: Long continous conflict (steady increase and return mobility, structural changes) 3 mio.II: „Peace scenario” – end of war and fast recovery (massive returns, selective stayers) 2 mio.III: Long war and difficult recovery (additional inflow, particularly females, children and elderly) 3.2 mio....IV: Defeat of UKR and massive destruction of the country16Slide 17:OutlookChallengesHousing (relocation?)Education / child careHealth careLabour marketAttitudes towards newcomers // politicization and media impact communication strategies17